Box office fell slightly year-on-year in the first quarter. 2017 China film market outlook is expected to recover moderately

According to Yien data, the box office in the first quarter of 2017 totaled 14.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, basically the same as the same period last year. After deducting e-commerce service fees, the box office totaled 13.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. This is the first time in the past five years. Box office growth in the first quarter was negative. Among them, the box office achieved 4.91 billion yuan in January, 6.19 billion yuan in February, and 3.37 billion yuan in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%,-10% and-10% respectively.

Original title: 2017 China's film market is expected to recover moderately.

The much-watched movie box office market has ushered in the first round of "summary" in 2017.

According to Yi En, the box office in the first quarter of 2017 totaled 14.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, basically the same as the same period in 2016. After deducting e-commerce service fees, the box office totaled 13.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. This is the first time in the past five years. The box office in the first quarter has negative growth. Among them, the box office achieved 4.91 billion yuan in January, 6.19 billion yuan in February, and 3.37 billion yuan in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%,-10% and-10% respectively.

In the view of many market analysts, achieving such results in the first quarter is already "within expectations" and "repairing pessimistic expectations." However, analysts are basically optimistic about the overall market in the second quarter and even 2017. "Driven by imported films and high-quality domestic films such as" Master of Memory ", the downward trend in the box office is expected to reverse, and the market outlook will usher in a moderate recovery." Haitong Securities analyst Zhong Qi told reporters.

Imported films strongly drove

the decline in box office revenue.

The top three films at the box office in the first quarter of 2017 were "Kung Fu Yoga"(1.753 billion yuan),"Journey to the West"(1.657 billion yuan) and "Extreme Agents: The Ultimate Return"(1.128 billion yuan), while the top three films at the box office in the same period in 2016 were "Mermaid"(3.39 billion yuan),"Zootology"(1.337 billion yuan) and "Journey to the West: The Monkey King Threatened the Bone"(1.201 billion yuan).

In the view of Wang Xiang, an analyst at Horizon Securities, the box office results in the first quarter were still good. "Box office revenue in the first quarter of 2017 fell by only 6.2% based on the high base in 2016 (a year-on-year increase of 49.8%), and the decline narrowed by 8.0 and 0.9 percentage points compared with the third and fourth quarters of 2016 respectively. Specifically, before the Spring Festival in 2017, the film market continued its downturn in 2016, but the box office of the Spring Festival period rebounded more than expected year-on-year and the successful takeover of Hollywood blockbusters after the holiday helped to repair the pessimistic expectations of the film market."

However, it cannot be ignored that the proportion of domestic films has dropped significantly in the top ten box office, and the box office in the first quarter was driven by imported films. According to statistics, 79 new films were released in the first quarter, including 22 imported films, with a cumulative box office of 7.86 billion yuan (including service fees), 57 domestic films, with a cumulative box office of 6.6 billion yuan (including service fees), and the average box office of imported films was 360 million yuan. The average box office of domestic films was 120 million yuan, forming a three-fold gap. In the first quarter of 2017, the box office growth rate of imported films exceeded 50%, which was much higher than the overall box office growth rate; it accounted for 45% of the total box office, a significant increase from 27% in the same period in 2016. Among them, imported films accounted for even more than 90%, and all five films with box office exceeding 100 million were imported films. "In the first quarter, the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival stalls, mainly domestic films, accounted for a large proportion of the box office. On this basis, imported films can contribute nearly half of the box office, showing that their performance is very strong." Wang Xiang said.

Shen Wan Hongyuan analyst Shi Yan expressed similar views. According to her introduction, domestic films among the top ten films in the first quarter of 2017 dropped from 8 in the first quarter of 2016 to 5, and the corresponding box office dropped from 9.07 billion yuan to 5.77 billion yuan. The proportion dropped from 80.7% to 57.2%. "The decline of domestic films further highlights the supporting role of imported films in the entire domestic box office market in the first quarter of 2017."

"At the same time, it is worth noting that whether it is the first quarter of 2016 or the first quarter of 2017, the top ten films with the highest box office are basically comedy, action, fantasy, etc., which reflects the preference of domestic moviegoers to go to theaters. The special effects the audience experiences from them are not available from home movies or online movies. This may be the main direction of domestic offline film production in the future." Shi Yan said.

The peak of screen construction will

gradually show the Matthew effect through the development of theaters

. In sharp contrast to box office fluctuations, it is the steady growth of screen construction.

Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2017, 577 new cinemas were added nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 29%, including 431, 85 and 61 in January, February and March respectively; the number of new screens was 3232, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with an average of 36 per day. Single-screen output in the first quarter was 760,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%.

"The growth rate of theaters and screens is higher than that of the whole of 2016." Shi Yan said,"However, since the new construction of theaters and screens in the first quarter was mainly concentrated in January, and the number of new screens in January was as high as 2417 in a single month. We believe that the new additions in January mainly reflect the plan for 2016. Due to the number of box office and theater screens Both have cyclical characteristics, the growth of the number of screens lags behind the box office growth. With the rational return of the box office market and the decline of single-screen output in 2016, the decline in the construction speed of theaters and screens has become inevitable. We expect the growth rate of theaters and screens to decline throughout 2017."

Wang Xiang also believes that since 2015, the growth rate of new screens has significantly exceeded the growth rate of box office, causing screen efficiency to continue to decline. However, considering that the total number of screens in my country is currently close to 45,000, leading the second-ranked United States by nearly 5000, and the box office The decline has also made new screens in theaters more conservative. It is expected that the speed of new screens will slow down in the future, and the decline in screen efficiency is expected to ease.

Although box office results declined slightly, theater rankings were stable and the concentration of market share increased slightly. Shi Yan introduced that the list of the top ten theaters in 2016 and 2017 was basically the same, while the total box office increased from 9.57 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2016 to 9.83 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2017, accounting for the proportion of the national box office from 66.2% increased to 68.0%. At the same time as the market share increased, the total number of movie visitors and seats in the country increased by 2.98% and 2.22% respectively. In the first quarter, the market share of the four major theater listed companies, China Films, Wanda Cinema, Shanghai Films, and Happy Blue Ocean, all increased, from 17.4%, 12.4%, 7%, and 3% respectively in the first quarter of 2016 to 17.9%, 13.4%, 8%, and 3.3% in the first quarter of 2017, and the Matthew effect is gradually emerging.

In this regard, many analysts said that opportunities in the film industry, especially the cinema sector, in 2017, will come from increased concentration rather than purely box office growth. The continued weakness of the box office will inevitably make the industry a trend to gather together to warm up, and theaters will accelerate their entry into mergers and acquisitions. During the integration period, current industry leaders can maximize the utilization of cinema resources and improve core competitiveness and overall profit levels after mergers and acquisitions integration and expansion. "In the long run, the domestic cinema industry will experience a development cycle of start-competition-integration-leadership. At present, after starting and competition, integration is about to emerge, and then a situation of leading the way. We believe that as cinema assets such as Wanda, China Film Corporation, Shanghai Film Corporation and Happy Blue Ocean are listed one after another, we will be able to accelerate industry integration through the power of capital. Some loss-making cinemas will withdraw from the market or be acquired, thereby accelerating the process of concentration improvement." Shi Yan said.

The opening performance was slightly flat at

the growth rate in the second quarter or the turning point

entered the second quarter, coinciding with the Qingming Festival. Judging from the performance of the three-day short holiday, the overall performance at the beginning of April was slightly flat.

Data shows that the single-day box office of the Qingming Festival in 2016 (April 2 - 4) was 202 million yuan, 224 million yuan and 159 million yuan respectively, totaling 585 million yuan; the number of people watching the movie was 6.282 million, 6.986 million and 4.982 million respectively, totaling 18.25 million people and 640,000 times; the box office mainly came from the imported films "Zootopia" and "Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice ", as well as three domestic films: " Hot Pot Hero "," My Agent Grandpa "and" Brother Sleeping on My Upper Bunk ". In contrast, the first day box office of the Qingming Festival in 2017 was 210 million yuan, excluding the impact of service fees, which was 198 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; the Qingming Festival was mainly for the early release of imported films "King Kong: Skull Island" and "Beauty and the Beast", as well as "The Sacrifice of Suspect X","Extraordinary Mission" and "The Kidnapper", which were released on the same day on March 31, but the overall domestic film box office performance was flat.

According to Zhou Weijia, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, the forecast box office growth rate (excluding service fees) in April may exceed 20%. In April, 22 new films were released in a single month, including 3 imported films and 1 Hong Kong film. "The films we focus on include the imported film" Speed and Furious 8 "(expected to box office more than 1.5 billion yuan), Mobile Team in the Shell"(expected to box office more than 500 million yuan), the domestic film "Master of Memory"(same director as "Master of Hypnosis", and it is expected that "Master of Memory" will box office more than 500 million yuan),"Spring Jiao Saves Chi Minh"(created by Yu Wenle, Miriam Yang and other original cast members, the third film in the series)."

"In the second quarter of 2016, due to the reduction in ticket subsidies, box office counterfeiting and lack of content, the total box office achieved was only 10.1 billion yuan. Under the effect of a low base, the box office growth rate starting in the second quarter of 2017 will usher in an upward turning point." Shi Yan predicts that with the successive release of Hollywood blockbusters such as "Express Delivery and Passion 8" in April,"Pirates of the Caribbean 5" in May, and "Cash King Kong 5" in June, driven by a series of IP-themed overseas films with a large fan base, the box office is expected to pick up further, and the box office for the whole of 2017 may reach about 53 billion yuan.

Editor: yvette