Big films collectively "avoid war", behind the wave of summer gear changes in 2026: A game of collective anxiety in the industry
Jiuzhiwang Film July 9, 2026 The summer of 2026 should have been the hottest box office battlefield of the year, but there was a rare wave of collective cancellations and postponements. "The Rise of the Great Sage","Just kidding" and "The Heart of the Dog", which were originally scheduled to be released for the summer season, have successively been adjusted by official announcements. The blockbuster films have been blocked and small and medium-sized films have exited at the moment. The bustling summer market has revealed a collective wait-and-see attitude of "not daring to touch it hard, but hiding if possible."
What is even more intriguing is that the historical war giant "The Battle of Penghu", which was already officially announced on May 22 and scheduled for July 25, has directly locked in the summer season with its rich historical themes, top-level creative lineup and market appeal with its family and country themes. The core seats in the second half of the season have become a key variable in shaping the entire schedule. Its finalization not only further squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized films, but also allowed more projects with the same track and audience to re-evaluate the release risks, indirectly promoting the fermentation of this round of re-editing.
It may seem like just a simple adjustment of the release date by the film company, but this wave of large-scale changes has actually torn open the deep contradictions hidden in the domestic film industry chain under the glamorous data: weak recovery of the market, unbalanced volumes within the schedule, insufficient confidence in content, and theater lines. Survival pressure and multiple factors are intertwined, putting the entire industry into a "dilemma" game dilemma.
- It becomes the norm to get together and withdraw from the archives: Films from different tracks collectively "escape" from the summer stalls
This time, it is clear that the films with the official announcement adjusted their schedule cover animation, reality comedy, and overseas warmth films. They have no limitations of a single type, which is enough to prove that this is not a content issue for individual films, but a common dilemma in the industry.
National IP Animation Emergency Extension
"The Rise of the Great Sage", which was originally scheduled to be released on July 10, relied on the ten-year national sentiment of "The Return of the Great Sage", and accumulated a lot of expectations in the early stage of the warming of materials. With only ten days left before the release, it was suddenly announced that it was withdrawn. Industry sources revealed that the film company predicted that the summer season's head films would be severely squeezed, and the animation track audience would have a fixed plate. In the first place, the light-chasing animation "The Three Kingdoms Part 1: Struggle for Luoyang" would take over the front, and in the second place,"Kung Fu Women's Football" would continue to harvest the market. Traffic, coupled with the fact that "Penghu Battle" targeted audiences of all ages in late July, it would be difficult to grab the golden film under multiple attacks; At the same time, after the trailer was launched, there was constant controversy over the quality of the picture and the adaptation of the plot. The film company was worried that the hasty release would consume the reputation of classic IP, so they chose to return and polish the content and fight again on an elective basis.
Reality themes exit silently
The popular comedy "Just Joke" was originally scheduled to hit theaters on July 3. Its small-scale screening received good reputation, but it quietly removed all publicity materials and gave up the summer schedule before its official release. The film focuses on the workplace difficulties of women at the bottom, and its themes are restrained and suppressed. Compared with the light-hearted comedies and hot-blooded blockbusters of the same period, it lacks a strong emotional point. In addition, the box office of many real-life films in the first half of the year was cold. After calculations, the publisher determined that summer students and family audiences prefer entertainment. Strong works, and in late July, historical blockbusters such as "Penghu Battle" will divert a large number of adult male audiences. The audience space of the film will be further compressed, and ultimately choose to silently withdraw from market competition.
Overseas warm films were withdrawn the day before they were released
Thailand's high-scoring warm-hearted film "Heart Dog Accompanying" has a mature overseas reputation, but its release was urgently cancelled 24 hours before its release. Pet healing themes have a narrow audience in the mainland market. During the same period, the pre-sale data of the leading film took the lead. The number of people wanting to watch and the pre-sale box office of the film continued to be at the bottom. In addition, the box office of many films at the beginning of the summer season fell short of expectations, and confidence in the entire market continued to fall. The distributor is reluctant to invest in publicity costs to make an "invalid release" and chooses to wait for a more suitable off-season period.
Heavy projects are blocked and fixed, reshaping the summer competition landscape
In sharp contrast to the above three films that voluntarily withdrew, it is the firm card position of "The Battle of Penghu". On May 22, the film released a trailer for "The Trend of the World, Coming on the Wind", which was officially announced to be released nationwide on July 25. It focuses on the historical event of Shi Lang leading the Fujian Navy to unify Taiwan in 1683, focusing on the feelings of family and country and epic naval warfare visual effects, starring Wang Xueqi and Du Jiang, starring Yi Shou Qianxi, and Zhao Liying and other powerful actors joining, directly becoming the most competitive domestic blockbuster in the second half of the summer period.
Its scheduling has directly disrupted the release rhythm of many small and medium-sized films. Many war, historical, and reality-themed films originally aimed at being released in late July have re-evaluated market risks, either raising the files in advance to avoid frontal collisions, or postponing them backwards and selecting the wrong peak release has formed a typical schedule ecology of "leading blockbusters are scheduled, and small and medium-sized films take a detour". Not only "The Battle of Penghu", the first, middle and last three sections of the summer season have formed a pattern of leading films sitting in town. The survival gap left for medium-sized projects is getting narrower and narrower, and withdrawing files to avoid risks has become a helpless and inevitable choice.
2. Behind the wave of gear changes, the four unavoidable contradictions at the bottom of the industry
- The overall market is weak, the cake has become smaller, and the entanglement has intensified infinitely
In the first half of 2026, the total box office of movies nationwide was only 17.3 billion yuan, with 421 million movie-goers, only better than the special year of 2022. The overall pace of recovery was far lower than industry expectations. The summer season was originally regarded as a life-saving straw for driving the box office throughout the year. Nearly 90 films were piled up to schedule or target the schedule. It seemed that the supply was sufficient, but in fact the market viewing capacity was not enough to accommodate a large number of new films.
The total amount of cakes is fixed, and the blockbuster movie will automatically seize more than 70% of the golden games, publicity traffic, and audience attention, leaving the living space for small and medium-sized films to be extremely compressed. A maximum of 8 new films will be released on the same day in a single day. Theater theaters can only allocate IMAX and prime evening time to lead works. Small and medium-sized films can only get morning shows and early morning shows. The attendance rate is poor, making it easy to have a "one-day trip" box office tragedy. Taking late July as an example,"The Battle of Penghu" relies on its theme advantages and the appeal of its main creators. The industry's forecast that the first day of filming is expected to exceed 40%. The filming space of other films in the same period will be greatly squeezed. This is also the core reason why many projects choose to withdraw early.
For films with high production and publicity costs, hard work equals huge losses. Withdrawing files to avoid risks or postponing wait-and-see is the most direct self-protection means for the film to reduce losses. - The audience's aesthetics are stratified, traffic is concentrated to the head, and small pieces lose their soil for survival.
The current movie-watching group is extremely divided: student groups prefer comedies, animations, and special effects blockbusters; adult audiences prefer headshots with strong plots and strong emotions. Films with medium-cost, niche themes, and lack top-notch creators and support, make it difficult to leverage the popularity of spontaneous viewing.
In the era of Short Video, the audience's attention is highly scattered, and only the head videos can support the popularity of online hot searches, national second-generation creations, and offline venue bookings; small and medium-sized films do not have sufficient budgets to release traffic, and it is difficult to break through the circle only by word-of-mouth fermentation. The pre-sale data opened in advance has become the "wind vane" of the film. Once the number of people wanting to watch and the pre-sale box office falls short of expectations, the film company will immediately launch a change plan to avoid a box office collapse after it goes online.
Headline projects such as "Penghu Battle", which have a family and country theme, historical significance and commercial visual effects, naturally have the attribute of breaking the circle of communication and can cover multiple audiences such as student groups, adult men, and family audiences, further siphoning The already limited market traffic makes the difficulty of breaking through for small and medium-sized films exponentially increase. - Lack of confidence in content, IP dividends fade, and the polishing gap can only be made up for by "postponement"
Many re-edited films have exposed the shortcomings of domestic content creation: classic IP sequels cannot withstand the emotional filter. After the trailer of "The Rise of the Great Sage" was launched, the style and plot adaptation were criticized by a large number of netizens; the real theme was not well grasped. Market sentiment, suppressing narrative is difficult to match the summer leisure atmosphere; overseas films are not suitable for the local culture, and local stories cannot impress domestic audiences.
In previous years, the industry was accustomed to "pushing production schedules back" and rushing to complete films after finalizing them; now the market is more rational, and the film company realizes that even if shoddy works squeeze into the prime period, they will only consume IP and lose box office. Instead of rushing to release and receiving bad reviews, it is better to postpone polishing the picture, adjust the narrative logic, and wait for a schedule that matches your own tone.
The reason why "Battle of Penghu" dares to firmly lock in the core position of the summer season is essentially based on its confidence in the quality of the content. The project has been in preparation for many years, with solid historical evidence, well-produced naval warfare visual effects, and the narrative of the characters takes into account historical thickness and emotional temperature. The core line of "Private favors, doubts, and grievances, go with the wind; the general trend of the world, come with the wind" accurately captures the public sentiment, has the potential to become a dark horse in the summer box office. This kind of content confidence is precisely what most withdrawn films lack. - Risk transmission in the industrial chain, pressure from various parties has given rise to a conservative wait-and-see attitude
The change seems to be just a choice of the film, which involves the loss of benefits of the entire industrial chain:
Theater line: theaters plan in advance according to the film company's schedule, make posters, and arrange movie halls. Temporary withdrawal directly leads to prime-time vacancies, losing passenger flow and revenue; small and medium-sized theaters rely on summer revenue to maintain year-round operations, and the collective exit of films has sharply increased operating pressure.
Film and management: The early publicity and release, material production, and road show publicity have all been sunk. The delay means that the capital withdrawal cycle will be lengthened, and the film and television investment return cycle will be further lengthened, exacerbating the financing difficulties of the industry.
Audience side: The repeatedly changing schedule continues to consume the trust of the audience. Many fans plan to watch movies in advance, but encounter film cancellations. Over time, they have formed the wait-and-see habit of "waiting for a stable reputation before buying tickets", further weakening the box office potential of new films on the first day.
Under the superposition of multiple risks, the entire industry has completely bid farewell to the radical era of "grabbing files to become king", and conservative risk avoidance has become the first choice of most filmmakers. Because of this, top-notch blockbusters like "The Battle of Penghu" that dare to face the summer season head-on can better highlight their market weight and industry value.
3. Collective file changes are not the optimal solution, and the industry is in a vicious cycle
In the short term, adjusting the film's schedule or postponing the wait-and-see period can indeed avoid fierce competition during the same period and reduce the risk of loss. However, in the long run, large-scale cancellations and postponements are creating a vicious cycle in the industry that is difficult to crack.
The division of schedule becomes increasingly extreme
All film companies have avoided the highly competitive summer vacation and crowded into the two top schedules of National Day and New Year. The degree of coverage in the two major schedules continues to soar, and the hot and cold schedules are polarized. The supply of high-quality films has been completely lost in the off-season season, and the market is hot throughout the year.
Audience trust continues to overdraw
Frequent changes in release times continue to consume the audience's sense of expectation. When movie fans are accustomed to "waiting for movies will be withdrawn at any time", they will reduce their early attention and give up early ticket purchases. The box office dividends during the movie's premiere window will continue to shrink, which in turn will force more film companies to dare not schedule.
Creation and distribution fall into a "lying down and wait-and-see"
More and more production teams are no longer deeply involved in small and medium-sized differentiated content, and are all gathering together to chase the leading track; issuers are unwilling to bear the cost of trial and error in the market, and immediately choose to withdraw files once they predict fierce competition, and the industry loses space for the growth of diverse content.
Compared with Hollywood's mature film market, blockbusters often lock in fixed schedules years in advance, with little temporary adjustments, and rely on stable schedule planning to cultivate audience viewing habits. However, domestic film schedules frequently change, exposing the lack of long-term planning and market prediction capabilities in the distribution system. Shortboard of insufficient ability. Even for projects such as the "Battle of Penghu" that have been officially announced and designated, there is always speculation in the market that "there will be temporary changes." The overall instability of the industry is itself a reflection of the immature market.
4. The road to breaking the game: Get out of the game of schedule and return to the content itself is the core
This wave of summer job changes has raised a question for the entire film and television industry: Is the core competitiveness of the film a golden period or the story itself?
Films that can truly break through the deadline and achieve box office counterattack have never won by "avoiding competition". The light-chasing animation "The First Part of the Three Kingdoms: Struggle for Luoyang" did not choose to postpone it. Relying on the well-produced, full narrative of the Three Kingdoms, and out-of-the-circle dubbing opponents, the reputation of the screening continues to ferment. Even with the attack of "Women's Football Kung Fu" in the same period, it still gained stable pre-sales popularity; the leading film "Kung Fu Women's Football" directly won the semi-theater lineup with its dual highlights of mature IP, Hong Kong-style comedy + female growth, without having to deliberately avoid competing products;"The Battle of Penghu" is anchored in the core schedule on July 25, facing market competition with a solid historical narrative and feelings for family and country, becoming the most anticipated domestic blockbuster in the second half of the summer season.
On the other hand, most of the films that choose to be withdrawn have core problems such as shortcomings in content and insufficient subject matter adaptation. Even if they change to the off-season where competition is less, if the stories cannot be polished, it will still be difficult to impress the audience. And those wait-and-see projects that never dare to announce official files will eventually face the prisoner's dilemma of "the more they wait, the more they dare not go up"-there will always be competing products in the market, competition will always be in the schedule, the content is not hard enough, and wherever you change it is Red Sea.
To break the cycle of "getting together, withdrawing files, and waiting and seeing", the industry needs three changes:
First, the creative side deeply cultivates differentiated content, creates multi-layer works, and tailors stories for different schedules and audiences to avoid the homogenization of all films;
Second, the distribution side has established refined schedule planning, no longer blindly chasing popular summer and National Day schedules. The unpopular off-season can also match niche, art, and healing films to revitalize the market throughout the year;
Third, the entire industry chain should establish long-term market confidence, reduce short-term speculative mentality, concentrate on polishing content, and use high-quality stories to retain audiences, rather than relying on adjusting schedules to avoid market tests.
conclusion
The wave of collective changes in the summer of 2026 is not an accidental market fluctuation, but a mirror of the transformation period of the domestic film industry. Scheduling has never been a panacea for the box office, and the core appeal of audiences entering the theater will always be a good story. When the industry is no longer obsessed with the game of "avoiding competing products and grabbing prime spots" and puts its focus back on content creation, this wait-and-see anxiety that pervades the entire industry will truly dissipate.
The future film market will not belong to films that know how to "avoid war", but will only belong to works that dare to face the audience with high-quality content. Just as "The Battle of Penghu" conveys that "the general trend of the world comes with the wind", the general trend of domestic films is always rooted in the content itself.