China's TV dramas are mired in overcapacity crisis, polarization forcing adjustment of the radio and television system

However, in the case of "one drama and two stars" just implemented, satellite TV immediately launched 1.5 rounds, which may not be what the General Administration is willing to see,"after all, the policy of the General Administration is completely overhead, and the General Administration will not sit idly by."

On January 14, Zhejiang Satellite TV broadcast the TV series Legend of Wu Mei Niang, which has been broadcast halfway in Hunan Satellite TV, by means of technical means such as re-editing and adjusting the duration. This is also the first TV series broadcast since the implementation of the "one drama and two stars" policy in the TV series broadcast field in 2015. In addition, the controversy over TV series censorship caused by the excessive "scale" during the first round of broadcasting of this TV series. The topic of the play has once again been raised in all walks of life.

But why is there a "1.5-round broadcast" phenomenon? What is the relationship between the "1.5 rounds of follow-up" and the "one drama, two stars" policy? These truly valuable issues are ignored as the uproar passes, and it is precisely these issues that constitute the key to our understanding of the difficulties of the times in which China TV dramas are mired.

Before the implementation of the "two stars for one drama" policy this year, it was the famous "4+X" policy that began in 2004. The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television wanted to adopt the "two stars for one drama" policy that "no more than two satellite TV integrated channels can be broadcast during prime time every night, and no more than two episodes of the same TV series can be broadcast on satellite TV integrated channels every night during prime time" to control the overcapacity problem caused by the "4+X" policy era.

What are the root causes of overcapacity?

This goes back to the turn of the century. In 1999, after all provincial TV stations realized the transformation of satellite TV stations into "satellite TV stations", due to the heavy economic burden caused by the high cost of "satellite TV stations", all satellite TV stations paid special attention to the ratings tied to advertising revenue. Television dramas and variety shows have always been the most powerful guarantee for TV stations 'ratings, of which TV dramas bear the brunt.

It is against this background of the times that as early as 2000, the total number of TV dramas in China exceeded 10,000 episodes. By 2007, China TV dramas ranked first in the world in terms of production volume, broadcast number, audience number, and three worlds. During this period, in order to take care of the balanced development of China's TV drama industry, not only ensure that more dramas can be broadcast, but also take into account the uneven development of television stations in various provinces and cities across the country, the "4+X" policy came into being: Four provincial satellite TV stations and X terrestrial TV stations, including TV stations in prefecture-level cities, could raise funds to purchase the same TV series and broadcast it in the first round at the same time.

China TV dramas during this period have typical characteristics of free competition. Since the beginning of the new century, the era of free competition for China TV dramas has lasted almost until 2012. By 2012, the output of China TV dramas also began to peak, reaching 17000 episodes. Of course, this cycle did not completely end in 2012. Since 2007, signs of the struggle between time and space have begun to appear. From 2007 to 2012, the free competition cycle of China's TV dramas since the new century has begun to hit its own ceiling, which is the so-called "limit of growth." The problem of overcapacity began to appear at that time. After the historical peak in 2012, The production of dramas has been declining in the past two years.

Can the "two stars for one drama" after the emergence of "1.5 rounds of follow-up broadcasts" change the current situation of TV series circulation?

The "one drama and two stars" policy that was implemented only this year actually began to appear "without name" in 2013. The traditional "4+X" policy actually died out in 2013. In 2013, 266 new dramas were premiered during prime time on all satellite TV comprehensive channels, and 174 were premiered exclusively, accounting for 65%. That is to say, since 2013, the actual situation has not been "one drama with two stars", but has already achieved 65% of "one drama with one star".

Why does this phenomenon occur? Because solo broadcasts can best guarantee ratings, solo dramas accounted for half of the top ten major dramas viewed in 2013 and 2014. Indeed, through market behavior alone, in 2013, the traditional "4+X" existed in name only.

The crux of the problem is that even this de facto "one drama, one star" has not changed the current situation of poor circulation channels for TV drama products, let alone "two stars for one drama"?

In the second decade of the 21st century, for example, in the official description of the situation of domestic TV dramas in 2014, the national TV drama production was "generally stable". A total of 429 plays with 15938 episodes were completed and approved for distribution, which is roughly the same as in 2013; However, the actual situation is that for a long time, there are only about 8000 episodes of TV dramas that can be actually broadcast every year in my country. For example, in 2013, when "one drama, one star" appeared, a total of 616 TV series were broadcast, of which only 266 were new series premiered, accounting for only 43% of the total number broadcast in the prime segment. This means that under this pattern, about half or more of the TV series will be shelved in most years, and the results of this channel pattern are further deteriorating.

In 2013, there were 18 satellite TV stations with ratings exceeding 0.1%. In 2014, it dropped to 15, and in January 2015, only 11 were left. There are currently 1179 TV stations in my country, 100 of which are "satellite TV stations. Among these 100 TV stations, local tycoon TV stations that can truly have the strength to make a million episodes for one night's ratings are still very few.

So, in order to ensure stable ratings, second-and third-line satellite stations can only choose to broadcast second-and-third rounds of large-scale dramas. Even though "The Legend of Wu Mei Niang" has already completed the first round and "1.5 rounds of follow-up", there are still seven satellite stations that have purchased the rights to broadcast the second and third rounds. Even if the "1.5 rounds of follow-up" broadcast method is actually broadcast about half of the first round and then reprocessed by another satellite TV, which is a policy "edge ball", only a few first-and second-line TV stations have the financial resources to touch it.

Therefore, the State Administration of Commerce originally wanted to release the massive inventory of TV dramas under the "4+X" broadcast mode through "one drama and two stars". However, under the pure market system where ratings and advertising revenue are bound, the reality in 2013 and 2014 tells us that the number of prime-time TV dramas broadcast directly related to advertising revenue is unlikely to increase significantly. Especially with the emergence of "1.5 rounds of follow-up broadcasts", I am afraid that "one drama and two stars" will only become even more insignificant. This naturally runs counter to the original good intention.

It can be seen that the current overcapacity problem in the production and broadcasting pattern of TV dramas in China cannot be solved simply through the simple method of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division of "one drama X stars."

The current radio and television system that binds ratings to advertising revenue has led to a two-level division of China's TV drama industry.

Today, China's TV drama industry is facing a two-level division problem caused by full free market competition since the new century. This two-level division is profoundly reflected in all aspects of TV series production, distribution, exchange and consumption. Under this polarized pattern, all TV series production units will face a cruel market reshuffle. Only about half of the new series are broadcast every year, which means that except for large companies with deep pockets, small and medium-sized production companies will no longer have survival soil, which will undoubtedly reduce the vitality of the integrated industry and endanger the organic ecology of the entire industry.

Since only large-scale dramas involving first-and second-tier stars will have relatively stable ratings, the living space of small and medium-cost dramas will be further compressed, and the possibility of high-quality dramas that can stand the test of the times will also be greatly reduced. Although the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television has repeatedly issued documents to limit the excessive salary of front-line actors, in this industry situation, it will surely become a dead letter. Front-line actors can even obtain a larger amount of return from their actual status as investors through equity participation. The probability of newcomers coming out will become smaller and smaller.

Similarly, under this current radio and television system that binds ratings to advertising revenue, the two-level differentiation between the first, second and third line satellite stations will become more serious. In the end, only 6 to 8 satellite stations with the strength to broadcast large-scale dramas will remain. Under the threat of ratings and advertising revenue, other weak satellite stations will eventually become second and third rounds of broadcast platforms for large-scale dramas.

The industry crisis has forced the current radio and television system to

adjust. Therefore, if its own structural adjustment cannot be completed within the favorable window for the overall rise of the cultural industry in the next ten years or so, the current situation of overcapacity in China's TV drama industry will inevitably deteriorate further from inflation to deflation, and China's TV drama industry will disastrously and ironically decline amid the booming prosperity of the cultural market.

In the second decade of the 21st century, China's TV drama industry and the production and broadcasting system behind it urgently need to readjust the top-level design. It is undoubtedly impossible to expand circulation channels through the "one drama X stars" method within the current radio and television system. There are many substantive changes.

Can we use effective policy levers to support second-and third-line satellite TV stations to truly digest the massive inventory of dramas without worry, and even produce dramas that meet their own actual conditions and regional characteristics according to their own needs?

Can we absorb new broadcasting channels in the mobile Internet era into effective exports of China's TV dramas, and even allow dramas produced by Internet companies represented by video websites to enter mainstream satellite TV based on market demand?

Can we fully learn from Korean dramas, American dramas, and British dramas to learn from each other's strengths and truly improve the inherent quality of China's TV dramas, not only please domestic audiences, but also occupy a place in overseas markets under the logic of developing cultural industries and enhancing cultural soft power?

These severe interrogations from the times test the seemingly prosperous China TV drama industry all the time. For managers of the TV drama industry in China, whether they can integrate and adjust the complex interest pattern accumulated more than ten years after the current radio and television system was launched into the stars since the new century will inevitably become a historical proposition that can run through the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" and even beyond.

Editor: yvonne