From Ip Man's box office fraud to the P2P redemption crisis, a huge bet on Internet finance + movies

Recently, the P2P platform Jinlu Financial Bank encountered a redemption crisis. The headquarters was crowded with hundreds of investors, and nearly 70% of the rights activists were middle-aged and elderly people. On the evening of March 31, Golden Deer announced through an official Weibo announcement that since March 25, some customers 'asset management products have failed to be redeemed after expiration, and the funding gap is about 300 million yuan.

There is also a crisis related to the Golden Deer. In mid-March,"Ip Man 3" was exposed to box office fraud. The box office of the movie reached 480 million yuan in four days after its release. However, real-time ticket sales maps from many theaters showed that there was a screening of "Ip Man 3" every ten minutes in the morning. It was called the "Ghost Field". Insiders accused it of "looking ugly", leading to the movie box office fraud scandal.

The question comes. What is the relationship between box office fraud and the current redemption crisis for Golden Deer? There is a lot behind it.

Among these two seemingly unrelated incidents, there is a simple relational model: the investor in "Ip Man 3" is Kuailu, which controls two listed companies, Shenkai Shares and Shifang Holdings. The P2P associated with Kuailu is Golden Deer Financial Bank, which serves as the capital end, and Kuailu's affiliated company in the film and television industry is Hehe Film and Television, which is the asset end. Kuailu absorbs funds through P2P with his left hand and invests in film investment with his right hand.

In February 2016, Shifang Holdings and Shenkai issued an announcement to successively subscribe for the box office revenue rights of "Ip Man 3". On the day the news was announced, Shenkai's shares rose to a daily limit.

Why use high-cost funds obtained from P2P to invest in film distribution just to earn box office revenue? Many industry insiders pointed out to Caixin that if the box office fraud of "Ip Man 3" is not exposed by the outside world, it is likely that it will gain benefits through the increase in the stock price in the secondary market to make up for the cost of its box office fraud and the cost of P2P financing.

But it backfired. In March, after the fraud incident was exposed, the Film Bureau of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television requested "serious investigation and punishment", and the stock price of the listed company fell accordingly. Shenkai's share price has turned downward from the highest share price of 17.57 yuan when it announced the subscription of shares to participate in the "Ip Man 3" investment, and closed at 13.39 yuan on March 17; while Shifang Holdings lost more than 60% of its market value, and the closing price on March 17 was HK$1.48.

From Ip Man's box office fraud to the P2P redemption crisis, what kind of "Internet finance + movie" gamble is this? (Picture quoted from Zero One Finance)

Then we come to the P2P redemption crisis at the beginning of the article. Jinlu executive Xu Qi said that Jinlu Finance invested users 'funds in companies controlled by Kuailu Group for investment. "So when they give us back their money, we can pay it."

The map of the game has since become clear: Kuailu borrows money from related P2P companies to invest in films, and then its listed companies acquire box office revenue rights. As long as the box office sells sold well, the stock price will rise, and then it can make up for P2P. The high cost, so under the pressure of stock price, box office fraud is a "necessity". Otherwise, even the P2P financing costs cannot be made up for, and the story of Golden Deer will occur.

In fact, behind this tragic story, the "asset shortage" is also at work.

An industry insider told Caixin,"The film and television industry has circles. If you don't have resources and connections, it will be difficult to get good projects without using box office guarantees." For producers, guaranteed guarantees can recover costs in advance and transfer risks to the issuer. Guaranteed issuers also have demands, such as hoping that the stock price in the secondary market will rise, or are impacting the new third board and need to improve performance, so they take the risk of making guaranteed issuance projects.

"Lost in Hong Kong" adopts a fixed increase in the secondary market of listed companies to ensure box office guarantees. During the box office guarantee operation of "Lost in Hong Kong", Xu Zheng sold his 47.5% box office share rights to the listed company Huanxi Media for 150 million yuan to recover the cost in advance. When the box office of "Lost in Hong Kong" reaches 900 million yuan, Huanxi Media will be able to recoup the cost of 150 million yuan. In the end,"Lost in Hong Kong" box office nearly 1.6 billion yuan. As a 19% shareholder of Huanxi Media, Xu Zheng not only enjoys the share brought by the high box office in this guaranteed operation, but also benefits from the soaring share price of Huanxi Media in the secondary market.

The success of "Lost in Hong Kong" has allowed more and more retail funds to enter outside the film circle. This year's "Mermaid" has a guaranteed guarantee of 1.6 billion yuan to 1.8 billion yuan, and the main investor has also become trust capital outside the film circle. Data shows that the structured product design of a fund investing in mermaids is: only when the box office reaches 1.792 billion yuan, can all levels be guaranteed not to lose money. The box office is 1.52 billion yuan, and the inferior level loses money; The box office is 1.182 billion yuan, with the inferior level and the intermediate level losing a total of 260 million yuan; the box office is 218 million yuan, and only the announcement level will not bear losses.

These stories all have a similar internal logic, which is: after the film is completed, the distribution rights are sold to external funds to recover the costs in advance. These external forces then raise funds from retail investors and use the money to expand the box office and obtain greater benefits from the capital market.

The operation of selling film investment income rights to retail investors has been summarized by the industry as "box office securitization": that is, with future box office earnings as a guarantee, the funds required for the entire process of the film from preliminary preparation, shooting to publicity are turned into standardized financial management or trust products for financing. However, after all, only a minority of films that sell sold well, but the risks are transferred to various retail investors with the lowest risk tolerance.

Original link new.36kr.com/p/5045438.html

Editor: queenie