2026 In-depth foresight for May 1st: 17 chaotic midfield battles, the breaking and confusing situation of China's film market

Jiuzhiwang Film News (Editor XJ13032601) Less than 20 days before the May Day 2026 five-day consecutive vacation period, the annual midfield war in China's film market has already sounded the alarm in advance. As of April 13, 17 films have been officially locked for May Day release, setting a new high for the number of May Day scheduled films in the past five years. From the Hollywood classic IP sequel after a lapse of 20 years to the Hong Kong film gold series. The return of ten years, from realistic masterpieces adapted from Northeast literature to vertical track thriller comedies and parent-child animations, it covers almost all mainstream movie-viewing genres, leaving no market gaps.
As the only national-level golden movie viewing window after the Spring Festival, May Day has always been a "barometer" of the movie market in the first half of the year. Historical data from Cat's Eye Professional shows that the domestic box office of May 1st has steadily increased for three consecutive years: 2.99 billion yuan in 2023, 3.41 billion yuan in 2024, and 3.78 billion yuan in 2025. In 2026, it is regarded by the industry as a key point to hit the 4 billion mark. This scuffle of 17 films fighting on the same stage hides not only a game of box office figures, but also the most real survival logic, creative trend and deep dilemma in the current China film market.

The two heroes lead the setting schedule: The Matthew effect is intensifying, and IP certainty has become the ballast stone of the market.

Looking at this year's May Day film list, the top pattern of the box office has already begun to take shape. The two major IP sequels,"Chills 1994" and "The Queen Wears Prada 2", with their irreplaceable audience base, top-notch creative lineup and stable market expectations, have become well-deserved pairs in the schedule, locking in over 60% in advance. Market share and screening advantages.
As the number one seed of domestic films in the season,"Chills 1994" is the ten-year return of the Chinese-language police and gangster film ceiling IP "Chills" series. 2012-2016 In 2008, the cumulative box office of the first two films of "Cold War" was nearly 1 billion yuan, and the Douban score was stable at 7.6 and 7.5 points respectively. It is a series of IP series that is rare in the Chinese film industry, both of which have achieved a double harvest of word-of-mouth at the box office. It has long accumulated an audience base for the three generations of old, middle and young. This new film is not only returned by former directors Liang Lemin and Lu Jianqing, but also brings together the top Chinese film lineup of Chow Yun-fat, Aaron Kwok, Leung Ka-fai, Koo Tianle, and Wu Yanzu. It brings the narrative perspective back to the eve of the return of Hong Kong in 1994, traces back to the origin of the "Cold War Incident", unveils the root causes of Li Wenbin's blackening, the establishment of the Independent Commission Against Corruption system, and the core foreshadowing of the game between the British and local forces, and breaks out of the Hong Kong-style police and bandit film "Assembly Line Blast Shootout". The series pattern was lifted up with the sense of historical significance and the game of machiavellian tactics.
As of April 13, the cumulative number of people who want to watch the film on the Cat's Eye and Taoyuan platforms has exceeded 150,000, ranking first among domestic films in the period. The maximum number of new people who want to watch it in a single day exceeds 20,000, making it the leading hot fault in the period. work. Analysts from Lighthouse Professional Edition predict that the proportion of the film's first day of release is expected to exceed 25%, and the box office is expected to exceed 800 - 1.2 billion yuan. It will not only carry the box office banner of domestic films, but also shoulder the responsibility of breaking the Hong Kong-style police and bandit films in the past two years. The industry mission of declining reputation and cold box office difficulties.

The only imported blockbuster "The Queen Wears Prada 2" in the schedule is the biggest market variable for this year's May 1st season. After a lapse of 20 years, this classic workplace IP, which has been seen by more than 1.2 million people on Douban and scored 8.2 points, has ushered in an orthodox sequel. The original class of Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt has returned. The story spans from the golden age of paper media to the current era of new media. It tells the story of Andy, a former workplace newcomer, who has grown into an editor-in-chief of a new media giant, and his former boss Miranda has changed from a mentor relationship to an industry rival. It has completed the core upgrade from "survival rules for newcomers in the workplace" to "workplace games and self-reconciliation for middle-aged women", accurately hitting the core emotional pain points of the current 30-45-year-old women.
It is worth noting that the film's mainland release was scheduled for April 30, leading the world's premiere one day ahead of North America. This distribution strategy not only demonstrates the continued increase in the weight of the mainland China market in the global film market, but also allows it to seize the opportunity of the schedule and harvest the female movie-watching group in advance. Data shows that female viewers account for more than 55% of ticket purchasing decisions all year round, while among the people who want to watch the film on dual platforms, women account for 78%, and the core audience aged 25-40 accounts for more than 70%. It is the work with the highest audience accuracy during the period. The industry predicts that the film's box office is expected to be between 600 billion and 1 billion yuan. It is the only film that can compete with "Chills 1994" and will also become a key variable in determining whether the scheduled market can exceed 4 billion yuan.
Under the market logic of "the strong will always be strong", the two top films have already locked in their early screening advantages in advance due to the dual certainty of IP and lineup. Referring to the May 1st installment in 2025, the top five producers contributed more than 80% of the box office in the schedule. The industry predicts that in 2026, these two top films alone are expected to take away more than 60% of the total box office in the schedule, and the remaining 15 films will launch a fierce stock battle in the remaining market space.

* Second echelon and waist corps: Break the game through differentiation and bid farewell to the genre revolution dominated by comedy
If the head film competes with the basics of IP and lineup, then the core of the competition between the second echelon and the waist film lies in differentiated layout and type innovation. Different from previous years, when May Day comedy films were piled up and dominated by one family, the May Day film in 2026 completely bid farewell to the traditional schedule logic of "comedy determines the world". The film types achieve all-dimensional coverage, and each sub-track has precise layout, forming a supply pattern of "letting a hundred flowers bloom".

Reality theme: The number one seed track of the black horse of reputation
Reality themes have always been the core position of word-of-mouth counterattack during holidays. In this year's May Day holiday season, the number one seed on this track is "Forest in the Forest". The film is written and directed by Zheng Zhi, a representative writer of the "Northeast Renaissance", and starred by Yu Hewei, Gao Yuanyuan and Han Geng. It is adapted from Zheng Zhi's novel of the same name. It tells the story of two groups of families in Northeast China due to an unsolved case and three generations spanning 40 years. Entanglement of destiny. As the original author of "Moses on the Plain","Coward" and "Swallow Raw", Zheng Zhi's Northeast Literature IP has already accumulated a stable audience. This is his first time as a film director across the border. The film has been shortlisted for the 2026 Beijing International Film Festival The main competition unit has locked in the foundation of literary and artistic quality and reputation in advance.
Different from the "slow-paced narrative" of most reality-themed films,"Forest in the Forest" wraps the family and the core of the times with a suspense shell. It not only has the narrative tension of a strong plot, but also has the humanistic texture of the Northeast region. It aims to prefer reality-themed themes and pay attention to a mature movie-watching group with depth of content. As of now, the number of people wanting to watch the film on dual platforms has exceeded 50,000, ranking first in the second echelon of the schedule. The industry predicts that if the film Douban opening score exceeds 7.5 points, it is expected to replicate the word-of-mouth counterattack of "Hidden Smoke" and "Life's Events". The channel's box office is expected to be 300 - 600 million yuan, making it the biggest dark horse in the schedule.

Suspense Track: Localized Breakout of the King of Genre Films
The competition at suspense tracks is almost a "dimension reduction blow" by Cheng Weihao alone. Cheng Weihao, the director who has established himself in the top echelon of Chinese genre films with "Soul Searching" and "The Things When the Ghost and I Became Family", has brought a new suspense masterpiece "The Disappeared Man." Starring Zheng Kai and Liu Haocun, the film focuses on the bizarre disappearance case between urban buildings, focusing on the social issue of "acquaintances killing each other" and the safety pain points of women living alone. It uses a interlocking narrative, an extreme suspense atmosphere and multiple times. Reverse the plot to create a localized social suspense story.
Cheng Weihao has always been good at perfectly integrating social issues and genre narratives. In his past, his works have achieved double box office harvests of word-of-mouth. This new work is also the only work on the suspense track in the period that has a mature main creator, a stable lineup and strong genre advantages. The number of people wanting to watch on the platform exceeds 40,000, and the box office is expected to be 200 - 400 million. If the reputation meets the standards, it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the box office.

Comedy Track: Break out of the farce and hit the audience with emotional value
In previous years, comedy films were the absolute main force in the May Day season. In 2023,"Unfamiliar with the Road in Life" and in 2024,"Catching the Dolls" both won the box office championship as comedies. However, the comedy track in 2026 has completely jumped out of the inner circle of "road farce and vulgar scares" and started type integration and core upgrades.
Among them, Chen Sicheng's first "life comedy" and "10 Death Squad" attracted the most attention. The film brings together young actors such as Jiang Long and Yang Chaoyue. It takes the hospice ward as the background and uses group comedy to deconstruct the heavy issues of life and death. It focuses on the healing core of "live bravely and laugh recklessly", which is different from traditional festival comedies., using a narrative intertwined with laughter and tears to poke the emotional pain points of young audiences. "Three Hearts" starring Ariel Lin fills the market gap in romantic comedies during the period with an anti-routine emotional narrative. It focuses on an easy-to-decompress movie-watching experience, accurately matches the social movie-watching needs of young couples, and firmly locks in. The holiday romance is just needed.

Animation track: Parents and children just need to compete in layers and compete against each other
Animated films have always been a must-needed configuration for the holiday season. In 2025, animated films will contribute 12% of the box office of the season. This year's animation track has formed a clear hierarchical competition pattern, and there is no single dominant situation:
At the young parent-child track,"Team Wang Wang Makes Great Achievements in the Big Movie 3" and "Pig Man Movie: The Racing Little Hero" faced off. The former is scheduled to be released in advance on April 29. The first two mainland box office exceeded 150 million and 220 million respectively, making it the absolute king of the young parent-child market; the latter is the 10th major film in the domestic animation evergreen tree "Pig Man" series. It has been deeply engaged in holidays all year round and has an extremely stable audience base, with a stable box office stable between 50 million and 100 million every year.
On the national style animation track,"Red Boy, King of Flame Mountain" attempts to reproduce the miracle of national style animation. The film was created by the original production team of "Journey to the West: The Rebirth of the Demon King". It is based on classic mythological IP and uses a new audio-visual language to reconstruct the growth story of Red Boy. It focuses on hard-core national style aesthetics and passionate narrative, targeting 6-18 years old Young people and national style enthusiasts are the only animation work in the schedule that has the ability to break through the parent-child circle.
In addition, there are also main-theme war films such as "Sleeping in Blood in Niushan" in the schedule. With the basic set of real historical adaptations and guaranteed movie viewing, the box office forecast of 100 - 200 million yuan is steadily locked in; Three thrillers, including "Horrifying Puppets" and "An Embroidery Shoe", are deeply involved in the vertical track and targeting the demand for exotic movie-hunting in the sinking market of third-and fourth-tier cities. In the May 1st edition of 2025, the thriller "Room 6 Midnight" will cost less than 10 million yuan at the box office, which has long proved the potential of vertical tracks to expand with small amounts.

Deep evolution and industry confusion: The truth behind the schedule carnival **
Behind the lively schedule promotion and intensive film supply, an unavoidable industry reality is emerging: China's film market is slowly bidding farewell to "schedule dependence," but at the same time it is also caught in the small and medium-cost survival dilemma of "no way to survive without schedule."
Data from Cat's Eye Professional shows that in the past four years, the proportion of domestic non-scheduled box office has continued to rise: in 2022, the proportion of non-scheduled box office will only be 28.7%, it will rise to 35.2% in 2023, it will reach 39.1% in 2024, and it will exceed 41.6% in 2025, setting a new high in the past five years. Audiences 'movie-watching habits are undergoing fundamental changes: it is no longer "you only enter the theater on legal holidays", but "you are willing to pay for a good movie at any time." In the May 1st season of 2024, the little-known "Catching the Dolls" won the season championship with a counterattack of word-of-mouth; in the summer season of 2025,"Nanjing Photo Studio" scheduled less than 5% of the film from the first day, and finally won 3 billion yuan based on word-of-mouth fermentation.+ Box office, these cases have repeatedly proved that publicity can only determine the beginning of the film, and the quality of the content determines the final destination of the film.
Since the schedule effect continues to weaken, why are there still 17 films piled up in the May 1st slot? There are two core reasons:
First, the overall performance of the movie market in the first half of 2026 was weak. The total box office in the mainland from January to March was 12.78 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year in 2025. Except for the box office of 8.2 billion yuan contributed by the Spring Festival, the box office in other months fell short of expectations. In March, the monthly box office was only 1.82 billion yuan, setting a new low for the same period in the past five years. The film companies collectively bet on May Day, hoping to rely on the popularity of the five-day holiday to boost the film market in the first half of the year and complete the annual box office KPI.
Second, as the Matthew effect intensifies, the living space of small and medium-cost films continues to narrow. For the whole of 2025, the top 10 films at the box office contributed 45% of the total box office for the year, while films with a box office of less than 10 million accounted for 72% of the films released throughout the year. In off-schedule, almost all theater screenings tilt towards top-notch commercial films. Small and medium-cost films simply do not have room for filming. No matter how good the reputation is, it is difficult to reach ordinary audiences. The May Day holiday traffic dividend is the only opportunity for them to be allocated to schedule and reach more audiences-even if they are to get a piece of the pie in the scuffle of 17 films, it is better than quietly released and released during non-scheduled periods.
At the same time, the role reconstruction of imported films is also an important industry signal for this year's May Day holiday. In previous years, Hollywood blockbusters have always been the "rescuers" of the schedule, but in the May 1st batch of 2026, only an imported blockbuster,"The Queen Wears Prada 2", entered the game. Behind this is the continued decline in the appeal of Hollywood blockbusters in the mainland market: imported films accounted for only 28.3% of the mainland box office in 2025, setting a new low in nearly 10 years. Audiences have long been aesthetically tired of sequels to superheroes and special effects films. Instead, they are more willing to pay for domestic films that resonate with emotion. The reason why "The Queen Wears Prada 2" can break through is not based on special effects and big scenes, but on the audience sentiment accumulated over the past 20 years and the current female emotional core. This also means that in the future, imported films will be in the mainland. Competition in the market will shift from "industrial-grade special effects" to "emotional resonance".
What is more noteworthy is that the sinking market has become a key variable in determining the final outcome of the schedule. In the past three years, the proportion of box office in third-and fourth-tier cities has continued to increase. In 2025, the proportion of box office in third-and fourth-tier cities will reach 42.8%, surpassing second-tier cities for the first time and becoming the core growth pole of the movie market. In this year's May Day holiday, the audience circles of different films are very different: the Hong Kong-style police film "Chills 1994", the parent-child animations and thrillers of "Pig Man" and "Team Wang", the core audience is concentrated in the third and fourth offline markets; while the core audience of "Forest in the Forest" and "Queen Who Wears Prada 2" are concentrated in first-and second-tier cities. In the end, which film can break through at the box office depends largely on whether it can leverage the movie-watching demand of the sinking market.
Of course, behind the lively schedule carnival, there are also deep hidden concerns in the industry. There is no more than 5 of the 17 films piled up in the May 1st batch. Referring to the May 1st release in 2025, 12 films were scheduled to be released, but only 4 films ended up exceeding 100 million yuan at the box office, and the remaining 8 films all had less than 50 million yuan at the box office. Most films fell into losses. This kind of irrational clustering and scheduling is essentially caused by the industry's "risk-averse mentality": filmmakers all want to take advantage of the holiday traffic dividend, but instead leads to scattered filming, diversion of audiences, and waste of a large amount of publicity and distribution resources. In the end, most films become cannon fodder, and may even lead to the embarrassing situation of "the more crowded the schedule, the colder the market".
The scuffle between 17 films in May Day in 2026 has never been just a competition in box office numbers, but also a comprehensive physical examination of the China film market. We can see the emotional power of classic IP, and we can also see the attempt to break through original content; we can see the definite advantages of the lead films, and we can also see the differentiated persistence of small and medium-cost films; we can see the audience paying for good content. The rational return of paying for it can also see the deep dilemma of industry entanglement and narrowing living space.
For China films, there is never a "bad schedule", only "bad content." The final outcome of May Day has never been decided by the finalization of the file and publicity. What will ultimately remain in the hearts of the audience will always be those works that tell the story well and convey the true feelings. The final answer to this upcoming war of light and shadow will always be hidden in the content.