When will the online seat selection + crazy guaranteed issuance market chaos end?

When online seat selection with the magic of "reverse scheduling" meets crazy guaranteed distribution, what China's film market opens up is actually a Pandora's Box.

When online seat selection with the magic of "reverse filming" meets crazy guaranteed release, what the China film market opens is actually a Pandora's box.

The summer season has entered the strangulation stage since last week. Many of last week's new films have faded out of the main battlefield this week. In such a fierce competition, you can still see many films with guaranteed release, such as the upcoming "Escape from the Jedi" producer Fang Tangde Film and Television recently announced that the three companies will jointly release the film at a guaranteed minimum amount of 1 billion yuan. In addition, Hengye Pictures has guaranteed the guarantee for "There is Qiao Mu in Summer and Elegant Hope to Paradise", which will be released on August 5, and the released "To Youth 2" has guaranteed the guarantee for the era of lithography.

"For good projects or large projects, most filmmakers will propose guaranteed issuance." This is the truth said by Gao Hongsen, president of Jidian Film and Television, in a recent interview with the media. In the current film industry, distribution companies have found that if they do not make high guarantees, they will almost be unable to reach the front-line productions in those markets. Not only will they not be able to become famous in one battle, but they may also miss hot spots for a long time.

Perhaps the most dazzling guaranteed issuance case this year is "Mermaid", which completed an astonishing guaranteed amount of 2 billion yuan during the Spring Festival of 2016 (there is still no accurate figure, but it is also said to be 1.8 billion yuan)-and it is far exceeded. The issuing companies behind it include China Film Corporation, the leader of the traditional distribution era, the backbone of the new century, the current upstart Lianrui, and He Pictures, which also has a fund company background.

Of course, there have been many failed guaranteed issuance cases that have not been completed recently, so I will not list them one by one here.

Although guaranteed distribution is similar to buyout distribution in the film era, we can still see great differences from the market background in which it is located. Since domestic films entered the era of split accounts, the original buyout distribution is actually gradually fading out, because the former is more conducive to producers to share more revenue possibilities, and distribution can also reduce the cost of capital pressure and participate in the sharing of terminal screening revenue. Perhaps for traditional issuing companies, it may be a bit unbelievable to see the madness of those issuing key and issuing newbies who are willing to bet on huge risks at all costs in the market.

Wu Siyuan, chairman of UME Cinema Management Group, said in a recent interview with the media,"Now guaranteed distribution is messing around with normal things, treating movies as business and hyping up like real estate speculation. Nowadays, 10 companies often produce a movie. This phenomenon never happened before."

Compared with the 2 billion yuan in "Mermaid", what is equally shocking is the closely followed "Ip Man 3". On the one hand, the schedule is a cold season after the Spring Festival. On the other hand, as the third part of a series, the box office appeal is already at the end of its strength, but it has amazing ambitions, 1 billion yuan-the fact is, they almost succeeded, and I will not talk about how it fell short here.

It is worth noting that in fact, as early as 2013, Huayi Brothers once issued "Journey to the West" with a high guaranteed guarantee of 300 million yuan. At that time, despite the great success of the film, Huayi Brothers earned a lot of money and made people Enviable, but the industry has not started an era of guaranteed distribution. Why?

There was only one Stephen Chow. For the film company, it was probably hard to find a second person other than Stephen Chow who was worth taking the risk and gambling at that time. Moreover, Stephen Chow did not have a new book until three years later. Moreover, at that time, Huayi was still a strong company in this market that could still dominate in issuance, which is very different from today. Another thing that is incalculable but unavoidable is that the Spring Festival period was previously deserted, but in 2013,"Journey to the West" exploded the hottest period of the year, and luck also accounted for a considerable amount.

Therefore, with guaranteed issuance that is almost everywhere nowadays, where do the issuing companies have the ability and courage?

Many media have found that after being deserted for more than three months, the summer market not only has it become hot again, but low-priced tickets have also reappeared. This has been accompanied by a large number of surprisingly high-profile films or abnormally high attendance for some films.

What is very different from 2013 today is not only that there are more screens, more theaters, higher production of feature films, and more non-industry capital pouring into the industry. The most fundamental thing is that the energy of online seat selectors has far exceeded the imagination of traditional distribution ideas-not only that it has accounted for more than 70% of the total ticket sales (Statistics from the Electricity and Resources Office, among the country's 31 provincial-level administrative regions, only Guizhou, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Xizang issued online tickets last week. Less than 70%).

When the online seat selection trend was first launched, one of the media's many imaginations was to "reverse the filming." That is to say, through pre-sales and "occupancy" in advance, theaters can feel the market popularity before the release, and theater managers are no longer allowed to judge demand based on experience alone. Instead, the audience's needs can be directly fed back to the theater manager, affecting the arrangement and even deciding on the arrangement.

As a result, in 2014, China's film market witnessed a record pre-sale of "Heart Flower Road", earning 100 million pre-sale box office before its official release. The number of games behind it is self-evident. The leading position and unsurpassed lead were locked in before the starting gunshots sounded in the National Day period. The hero behind it is the Cat's Eye movie, and he will not let go. This is a vivid "reverse filming" practice that even shocked the industry. Traditional publishers may not only feel panic but also hurt. The war was almost over before the publishers even left for the front lines.

How did Cat's Eye do it at that time? Ticket compensation and the low-cost leverage it formed were decisive, as can be seen from the subsequent era of 9.9 yuan ticket prices that lasted almost a year in the entire industry. Weipier, Baidu glutinous rice, and Taopiao tickets, which were in the tuyere with Cat's Eye, all participated in the industry storm of watching movies at 9.9 yuan to varying degrees.

Whether it was intentional or not, the "reverse filming" promoted by low prices has opened a secret channel in movie distribution, a shortcut-using the money from the ticket to "pre-order" the basic attendance rate of each theater from the theater. The filming sessions will be opened, and the remaining unsold seats will either be sold by the theater itself, or online selection will be used to promote 9.9 yuan or 19.9 yuan. But what is obvious is that using votes to make up for additional games is definitely used in a good way.

Under the large-scale application of this tool, some movies have really attracted a large number of real audiences, while some movies have only achieved high scheduling and high attendance on the ticketing system under the waving of this tool. But in fact, the movie hall is sparse or even empty. Who here is good and who is abusive? I'm afraid it's really difficult to distinguish. The tools are the same, and even the motives may be the same.

This may also be the reason why Shi Jianxiang is still stubborn and even wants to rehabilitate the film more than three months after the fake screenings and self-purchased box office of "Ip Man 3" were exposed; it is also the reason why the two leaders of the Film Special Fund Office made very different statements in April that "almost all the high-grossing films currently have box office injections without exception."

Interestingly, the remaining four major online ticket operators on the market today have already "attached" or "committed" film distribution companies-Cat Eye was acquired by Light, Baidu (Nuomi) took a stake in Xingmei, Yaolai took a stake in Weipier and established a joint venture, and Taopiao was merged into Alibaba Pictures.

There is no need to say anything about the light. Xingmei co-released "Ip Man 3" at that time, Yaolai was about to release "I am Not Pan Jinlian" at a guaranteed minimum, and China Alliance, the shadow company of Alibaba Pictures, participated in the guaranteed release of "Jedi Escape" at a guaranteed minimum of 1 billion. Moreover, these four companies are all listed companies. In fact, as early as 2014, Huayi Brothers acquired Selling Online, but the latter did not improve much and did not give Huayi Brothers a greater benefit. The online ticket website purchased by Light in 2015 is also in the same situation. The difference is that Light is determined to bet on online selection again in distribution, and this year it purchased the industry's number one Cat's Eye movie.

From the earliest online seat selectors posted their own tickets, to now the film and online seat selectors share the ticket compensation, or the bet ticket compensation (online seat selectors pay the ticket compensation first, and when a certain box office is reached, the film company pays the ticket compensation), the difference in form actually reflects the deeper changes in the industry-today's film companies are no longer passively enjoying the tool convenience brought by the Internet, but rely heavily on this distribution tool, and are keen to pay as long as their goals are achieved.

This is also why, in the recent summer holidays, some films were clearly defeated and almost hopeless, but there was still a large number of scenes suspected of flooding.(Some cinemas have high numbers and movie halls are full.) Some films are coming to an end, and the box office trend has declined like a cliff with no turning back, but you can still see strange full numbers in a large number of screenings. Of course, extreme phenomena do not rule out extreme contingency, but the common accidental phenomenon inevitably makes people wonder whether it is caused by ticket replacement tools. The original ticket replacement consumption plan has not kept up with changes in the situation, which is actually similar to the fact that national units often rush to digest the current year's budget at the end of the year.

Theatres have enjoyed the high box office and high-ranking status generated by online seat selection in the past two years, and have also benefited from the publishers 'desire for high-performance films and high attendance behind the secret battle for guaranteed distribution. But everyone knows that the money will run out, and after investors wake up and stop paying, will theaters still be intact?

Is it a promotion or a water injection? Is it to spend marketing costs or buy box office results? These companies must be able to see clearly on their own financial accounts, but the external audience, media and regulatory authorities can only see flowers in the fog and understand whether there is a bubble behind the high box office of the whole market or some single pieces in the past two years? It can be seen against the poor trend of the film market in the first half of this year.

When online seat selection with the magic of "reverse scheduling" meets crazy guaranteed distribution, what China's film market opens up is actually a Pandora's Box.

Can it be cured? Frankly speaking, because the leverage operation of online seat selection is hidden and the boundaries between violations are blurred, the regulatory authorities want to use visible hands to make strong corrections. In fact, the means and basis are also insufficient. Li Dong, deputy director of the Electricity and Resources Office, said in an interview with the media in April this year,"We have supervision but cannot manage it. Policies and regulations have not kept up, and we cannot impose penalties on each other." After the "Ip Man 3" incident, the official only issued a serious warning and sincerely talked to the three e-commerce companies that had relatively concentrated ticket sales for fake times. I am afraid that the regulatory authorities could only say all they could do. This is probably why after the market has been silent for more than three months, not only the 9.9-yuan ticket subsidy promotion reappeared during the summer, but also the high-profile films and high attendance rates that are quite different from the trend of the market have reappeared. In the end, the market still has to rely on the market itself to solve it. I hope that the invisible hand can correct and repair itself.

Editor: Nancy