Withdrawing files is not about admitting counselling, squeezing files is a gamble: 2026 May 1st is a game between industry sobriety and collective corruption

Jiuzhiwang Film News (Editor 1326XJ01). When a reality-themed work that had just finished the screening of the main competition of the Beijing International Film Festival and won high scores in the magazine, it suddenly announced that it would turn around and leave after the pre-sale began; when a new film in the national-level comedy lineup, it was announced early that it would withdraw from the competition. The May 1st batch in 2026 did not follow the industry's preset script from the beginning.

The schedule battle, originally called the "most crowded in history" in the industry, was finally fixed on the same stage with 18 new films competing on the same stage due to the two seeded players leaving the competition one after another. It seems that there are just two fewer competitors, but in fact it completely tore apart the "pseudo-prosperity" background of this prime time slot, and also made this seemingly lively box office fight expose the most authentic survival logic and collective dilemma of China's film industry.
Leaving the game at the last moment is never about cowardice, but about being sober in the Red Sea
In the inherent perception of many viewers, withdrawing a film at the end of the season is often equivalent to "poor quality and dare not take on the challenge." However, in this year's May Day, this conclusion is completely untenable.
The two works that chose to leave this time are by no means "cannon fodder with insufficient confidence." One of them is adapted from Zheng Zhigao's original book of word-of-mouth. It was written and directed by the original author himself, with Yu Hewei and Gao Yuanyuan leading the lead roles. It was not only shortlisted for the main competition unit of the Beijing Film Festival's highest award, but also won the double recognition of film critics and the audience after the screening. It was originally the number one candidate for the May 1st anniversary of word-of-mouth counterattack; The other one stars Ma Li and Fan Chengcheng. It is one of the few national-level comedies in the schedule. It has a stable audience base and has the ability to get a piece of the pie.
The core reason for their departure has never been quality, but the extremely entangled schedule environment, which has turned "staying" into a big bet with a very low chance of winning.
This year's May Day holiday, there is a abnormal pattern of "racing tracks" that is rare in the industry: among the 18 scheduled films, there are more than 6 works of police action and criminal suspense alone, accounting for nearly 30%. The core settings and narrative styles of works of the same theme are highly coincident, and it is difficult for the audience to clearly distinguish the differences between several films based on trailers alone. The reality-themed works that chose to leave are just on this most crowded track. The pre-sale data is more telling: As of the withdrawal, the film's pre-sale box office on the first day was less than 100,000 yuan, while the pre-sale of the head works on the same track has exceeded 1.2 million yuan, a gap of more than 10 times.
The same goes for the comedy track on the other side. Comedy themes that are already scarce are still competing on the same stage. Instead of ending up in a homogeneous battle with "one-day release", it is better to release them at the wrong peak to leave enough room for word-of-mouth fermentation. Space-this is not an admission, but the sobriest choice for small and medium-cost films, in an extremely involuble schedule.
The more cruel reality is hidden in a set of comparative data: as of late April, the total box office forecast for the May Day holiday given by industry platforms was less than 800 million yuan, only a slight increase compared with the same period last year. However, the number of new films that have squeezed into this period has soared from 10 last year to 18, an increase that nearly doubled. A simple conversion can be understood that the expected box office cake that a single film can get has shrunk by nearly 40% compared with last year. The cake did not grow bigger, but the number of people dividing it almost doubled. In such a pattern, withdrawing from stocks is never about cowardice, but a rational decision to stop losses in a timely manner.
Pattern reconstruction: Removal of gears disrupts the layout logic, and the weight of the track ushered in a disruptive rewrite
The departure of the two seeded players did not change the core background of "head monopoly, waist killing, and tail accompanying running" in the May 1st stage, but completely disrupted the originally solidified layout logic and gave the track weight of the entire stage., a subversive reconstruction took place. The originally crowded track suddenly made room, and the waist works ushered in an unprecedented counterattack window.

Head duo: differentiated barriers and locked in the basics of the schedule

No matter how stirred up the pullout storm, the head position of the schedule has not been shaken from beginning to end, and even the departure of competing products has further consolidated the layout advantage.
Staying at the top of the popularity gap is the only imported Hollywood film in the schedule, a sequel to the classic workplace IP. The film not only achieved the return of all core stars, but also gave China's mainland market the right to win the world premiere ahead of North America, giving domestic audiences sufficient sincerity. More importantly, it accurately steps on the movie-watching needs of young women, focusing on women's growth and workplace narratives. It has become the only differentiated existence in the full-screen male-oriented police, suspense, and action works. It almost monopolizes the core movie-watching needs of female audiences during the period. The theater's first-day schedule forecast exceeds 22%, making it the number one contender for the box office championship.
Opposing it is the absolute leader in domestic films and a new work of national-level Hong Kong film IP. The film brings the story back to the Hong Kong Police Force in the 1990s, uses a two-line narrative to deconstruct the power game within the police force, continues the iconic series of high-spirited action dramas and strong reversal plots, and gathers powerful actors from both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the three places., has locked in the top spot of domestic films from the beginning of the release. For theater managers, this work is the most secure "basic set" in the schedule. It has a stable audience and mature genre. The pre-sale data has always ranked first in domestic films. Together with imported title works, it almost monopolizes the schedule. With nearly 50% of the filming resources, no matter how other films fight against each other, it is difficult to shake the top position of the two.
Waist seed: The gap in the track has been vacated, and the dark horse candidates have a good opportunity to break through
The biggest beneficiaries of the departure of the two works were precisely the seeded players in the second echelon of the schedule. The originally scattered audience began to concentrate, and the originally crowded track suddenly vacated its core position, giving them a greater possibility of relying on word of mouth to achieve counterattack.
On the suspense track, the biggest winner is the crime works starred by directors who are good at crime thrillers and starred by Zheng Kai, Liu Haocun and Qiu Ze. The film relies on the core setting of "acquaintances committing crimes" and the sense of suffocation and atmosphere filled in the trailer to lock in the audience's attention on the suspense track in advance. With the withdrawal of high-reputation seed players on the same track, it has become the most promising work in suspense themes in the May 1st category. It has accepted the audience expectations of almost all suspense themes. As long as the reputation reaches the standard after release, it is the top candidate for the dark horse in the schedule.
In the comedy track, the absurd comedy produced by Chen Sicheng caught the market gap after competing products left the venue. Starring Jiang Long and Yang Chaoyue, the film hides life issues in the jokes of the market. It was also shortlisted for the screening unit of the Beijing Film Festival. It is one of the few orthodox comedy works in the schedule. The demand for family movie-watching during the May Day holiday has always been rigid. With the withdrawal of competing products of the same type, it has met almost all audience expectations of comedy themes. As long as it can catch the audience's laugh points, it can achieve The steady rise in box office.
What deserves more attention is the warm works on Chaoshan themes that have embarked on a completely differentiated route. The film uses a letter to seal overseas Chinese to mark home, connecting the love of four generations of multinational families. Relying on delicate and true emotional expression, it achieved a counterattack on niche themes during the pre-sale stage, and once topped the pre-sale list. In the entire May Day holiday, there is almost no second realistic and warm work focusing on family relations and local areas. It accurately fills the gap in the theme of the market, completely avoids the white-hot involvements of suspense and action tracks, and has a great opportunity to replicate the past. The dark horse myth of small and medium-cost films rely on emotion to break the circle.

Subdivision track: rigid demand is steady, and the most secure existence in the schedule

In addition to the fight between the head and the waist, the May 1st segment track is almost unaffected by the shock of withdrawing gears. Relying on the rigid audience demand, it has become the most stable existence in the schedule.
The parent-child movie viewing market is the rigid track that is most unaffected by inflations during the May Day holiday. In this year's schedule, only two major movies with national-level animation IP were scheduled, which almost monopolized the market share of all family movie viewing. The audience base of this kind of works is extremely solid, and parents have extremely low threshold for decision-making. Even if the popularity is not as popular as the title film, they can still play steadily during the five-day holiday and win their own box office share. In addition, 4K rereleases of war historical themes and classic Hong Kong films accurately fill in the thematic gaps in the schedule, relying on a fixed audience to share a piece of the pie without having to participate in the white-hot inner volume.

Scheduling dilemma: The crowded prime time slot has never been a safe deposit box office

The withdrawal of the two films has never been an isolated individual choice, but a long-standing "schedule dependence" in China films, the most concentrated outbreak.
For a long time, there has been a deformed consensus in the industry: as long as you squeeze into the prime slots of Spring Festival, May Day, and National Day, you will get tickets to the box office. Even if I squeeze my head out, I still have to dig into the prime time slot, but I forget that the schedule has always been just an amplifier for the box office, not a life-saving charm.
Why are all film companies working so hard to squeeze into the May Day slot? The answer is very realistic: in the film market in the first half of the year, except for the Spring Festival, only the May Day film was a national golden window with a five-day break. It was one of the few traffic highs in the film market in the first half of the year. For filmmakers, squeezing into May Day means more opportunities to schedule films and higher market exposure. Even if there is only a one-in-ten-thousandth chance of becoming a dark horse, it is still better than releasing it on a deserted ordinary weekend and quietly pouncing on the street.
But if everyone presses on the same track, it will only lead to a tragedy for the entire industry. In this year's May Day, we saw the most abnormal market pattern: nearly one-third of the films are clustered on police, suspense, and crime tracks, and the homogenization is so serious that it is difficult for viewers to distinguish between several films based on trailers alone. The core differences. The filmmakers all wanted to drill into the "safest" mature track, but in the end, the originally safe track was rolled into the Red Sea where there was no escape. On the contrary, there are very few truly scarce family comedy, female themes, and realistic and warm works in the schedule.
The more cruel reality is that prime time has never been a feast where rain and dew fall, but a gamble where the top winner takes all. Industry forecasts show that this year's May Day holiday, the top two top films will dominate more than 50% of the box office in the slot, and the remaining 16 films will only compete for less than half of the remaining market share. For a large number of small and medium-cost films, the final schedule may account for less than 1%, and they may not even have the opportunity to show their faces in theaters. They will eventually become cannon fodder for the schedule, and cannot even recover the production costs.
The works that chose to be withdrawn this time actually remind the entire industry: good content never needs to rely on gathering golden dates to prove itself. Off-peak release can instead avoid internal rumors, allow enough time for word-of-mouth fermentation, and ultimately rely on long-term screenings to achieve a box office counterattack. Compared with betting on schedules, grabbing windows, and fighting for inner scrolls, the core confidence of film creation is to concentrate on polishing good content that can impress the audience.
Final prediction: There is no box office myth, only word of mouth determines life and death
For the May 1st edition of 2026, which is about to open, we can give the most certain prediction: this schedule will not create a national-level box office myth, nor will there be a box office miracle built up through publicity, and the final box office ranking will definitely be completely rewritten by the audience's reputation within 36 hours of release.
Although the two works at the head are leading the way in popularity and leading the film layout, whether they can ultimately meet market expectations depends on whether the quality of the film can meet the expectations of the audience. Classic IP sequels have always been a double-edged sword. Feelings can bring initial popularity, but if the content is sloppy, the audience will never buy it.
Among the seed players at the waist, who can eventually counterattack and become the dark horse depends on the reputation after the release. In today's highly transparent information, the quality of films can be spread throughout the Internet in just one morning. Good content will be spontaneously praised by the audience, and bad films will be quickly abandoned. There is no possibility of luck.
As for those small and medium-cost films that are crowded into the schedule, without strong word-of-mouth support, there is a high probability that they will be eliminated by the market within the first three days of the holiday and completely disappear from the audience's vision.
After all, audiences are willing to pay for a good story, but never pay for the three words "May Day". The departure of the two films has poured cold water on the crowded industry: the core of the film market will always be content, not schedule. The final winner of the May Day round in 2026 must not be the one who dares to bet the most, but the one who understands the audience the most.