Concerned about the growth rate of film and television media profits, fund reduction is beginning to appear

Film and television media stocks have performed strongly this year. As stock prices continue to rise, valuations have also become more expensive. It is precisely because the fund has begun to reduce its holdings of film and television media stocks because it is worried that future profit growth cannot keep up with the stock price rise.

Affected by this, on May 9 and 10, the share prices of Huace Film and Television, Huayi Brothers, Enlight Media and other companies began to fall against the market.

The signs of fund reduction are beginning to appear

       Following the investment of "Tai?" by Light Media in the fourth quarter of 2012 After the box office exceeded 1 billion yuan, in 2013, the box office of film and television media companies continued to exceed expectations, and their stock prices continued to rise. However, at the same time, the valuation of film and television media companies gradually became expensive, and funds that hold heavy positions in film and television media stocks have begun to reduce their holdings.

In the first quarter of 2013, the box office of "Journey to the West to Conquering Demons" released by Huayi Brothers and directed by Stephen Chow exceeded 1 billion yuan. Entering the second quarter,"To Our Youth That Will Eventually Die" directed by Zhao Wei, invested and distributed by Enlight Media, sold sold well. As a result, film and television media companies have gained popularity in the secondary market, and their share prices continue to rise sharply. As of May 10, this year, Enlight Media rose 81.4%, Huayi Brothers rose 88.47%, Hualu Baina rose 44.85%, and New Culture rose 48.1%. The stock prices of these companies all hit record highs.

Against the background of rising stock prices, valuations of film and television media companies also appear expensive. At present, the dynamic P/E ratio of Huace Film and Television is 50.9 times, Enlight Media is 46.5 times, Hualu Baina is 60.5 times, New Culture is 45.3 times, and Huayi Brothers is relatively cheap, at 25.3 times. As a result, some funds and other institutions have begun to reduce their holdings of film and television media stocks.

On April 26, Enlight Media surged 7.5%, entering the list of major transactions. Data shows that there were two institutional seats among the top five sold seats on the day. Among them, the first-ranked selling institution seat sold a net of 29.211 million yuan, and the fifth-ranked selling institution seat sold a net of 22.862 million yuan. The number of shares sold by the two institutional seats was 800,000 shares and 1 million shares. Judging from the first quarterly report of 2013, the institutions holding more than 1 million shares of Enlight Media are mainly funds, such as Soochow Industry Rotation, Invesco Great Wall Power Balance, Yimin Innovation Advantage, Harvest Quality Enterprises, BOC Income, BOC China Select, etc. funds. Therefore, it is likely that the institutional seats sold on April 26 were funds.

On May 8, Huayi Brothers had a daily limit, and the transaction volume entered the list of volatile players. Data shows that among the top five selling seats, the top two are institutional seats, with sales of 35.807 million yuan and 35.039 million yuan respectively, and the number of shares sold is around 1.3 million shares and 1.2 million shares. Judging from Huayi Brothers 'quarterly report, the institutions that held more than 1.2 million shares of Huayi Brothers in the first quarter were mainly funds, such as Huatai Bairui Active Growth, Chinese Business Strategy Selection, Dacheng Wealth Management 2020, Yinhua Core Value Optimization, Chinese Business Leading Enterprises, Chinese Business Dynamics Alpha Flexible Allocation and other funds. Therefore, the seats sold on May 8 are also likely to be funds.

Worried that profit growth cannot keep up with stock price increases

       A senior fund manager of a fund company in Shenzhen said that when the economy was lower than expected this year, cyclical stocks could not rise, so funds were piled up on stocks in emerging industries such as film and television media, making such stocks far outperform the market. However, as valuations become more and more expensive, they are worried that future earnings growth cannot keep up with the stock price rise. Recently, they have also sold some film and television media stocks at high levels.

It is understood that in the first half of this year, the highlight of film and television media stocks was that there were blockbusters, such as "Journey to the West to Conquering the Devils" and "To Our Youth That Will Will Be Gone" both exceeded expectations at the box office. But looking back, the box office expectations for upcoming movies are average. Huayi Brothers will release "The Big Tsunami" and "Baseball?" In the second quarter, Enlight Media's expectations are also relatively flat."Gorilla","The Prequel of Di Renjie","City Control Plan" and "Private Customization" directed by Feng Xiaogang. In the third quarter, it will continue to agency and distribute "The Glorious Days" directed by Zeng Zhiwei and Xiong Xinxin. In the third quarter,"The Unparalleled Detective","Four Famous Catchers 2","Saier III (Provisional)" and "Four Famous Catchers 3" invested and distributed by Enlight Media will be released.

Another fund manager said that from the perspective of mature markets such as the United States, their valuation of film media companies is not high, and the current domestic valuation of film media companies is too high. In addition, the performance of film and television media companies is often uncertain. There are too many factors that influence the success of a movie. It can be seen from the past few years that even with big-name directors, the box office of some movies is lower than expected.

Although domestic film and television media stocks have surged sharply recently, Bona Films, which is listed on Nasdaq, fell 8.54% this year (as of May 10). In the first half of this year, the highlight of film and television media stocks was that there were blockbuster blockbusters, such as "Journey to the West" and "To Our Youth That Will Be Gone" both exceeded expectations at the box office. However, looking back on the future, the box office expectations for upcoming movies are average.