Rao Shuguang: 2016 is not the turning point in the development of China films

2016 is not an inflection point for the development of China films, but a certain inflection point for the development mode and growth mode of China films.

2016 is not an inflection point for the development of China films, but a certain inflection point for the development mode and growth mode of China films. The dividend curve brought by the long-term export-oriented growth model has gradually flattened, structural excess has gradually become apparent, and content supply needs to be strengthened urgently. From this perspective, the "turning point" in the debate among all parties is a concentrated reflection of the current structural contradictions in China films. The slowdown in box office growth is the symptom, and the contradiction between the demand side and supply side of China's film industry is its essence.

First of all, from the demand side, the export-oriented growth model relying on hardware indicators has been an important factor in the rapid development of China's film market since industrialization.

In 2015, more than 8000 new screens were added. From January to September 2016, 1230 new theaters were added across the country, and 7153 new screens were added. The average number of daily screens reached a record 26. As of the end of September, the number of screens nationwide has reached 38780, and the screening scale is quite close to the North American market. In fact, since 2010, the growth of screenings driven by the continuous construction of theaters has become the main driving force for the development of the China market. Terminal expansion has undoubtedly expanded the market space and provided the audience with more choices, which is of great benefit from the "demand side" perspective. However, the simple calculation of per capita screen share does not represent the real consumption capacity. The theater market has to a certain extent highlighted the phenomenon of structural excess.

In the first three quarters of this year, the number of cinemas screenings nationwide increased by 40.8% year-on-year. However, the new round of expansion of the screening market has not brought about the expected box office growth. Screen demand in first-tier and second-tier cities has become saturated, and the output of existing cinemas continues to decline. The match between newly expanded cinemas in third-and fourth-tier cities and cultural consumption in small towns is not yet fully proportional, resulting in low attendance rates for new screens in many places and even lowering single-screen output. In addition, the industry's expectations for young people in third-and fourth-tier cities and small towns as an increase in China's films may be overestimated. The enthusiasm they once showed during the Spring Festival has caused certain illusions and even illusions in the market.

During the same period as the accelerated expansion of cinema terminals, online ticketing platforms have emerged. Third-party e-commerce platforms have intervened in the screening process and competed for ticketing market share. Ticket purchasing subsidies have become a major feature of China's film market and have also become an important factor in the rapid growth of box office since 2012., and peaked in the summer of 2015. As a means for e-commerce to conduct box office marketing, ticket subsidies stimulate the audience's consumption desire, promote box office growth, and have a positive effect on market expansion. However, while ticket subsidies hype and ferment box office performance, they also bring negative and negative effects to the film market. impact. Judging from the process of capital entry, ticket compensation is essentially a disguised box office purchase, which also interferes with the normal order of the film market to a certain extent. The lack of sustainability of its marketing operation affects the healthy and stable development of the film market. This negative effect has been concentrated after the Spring Festival in 2016. The integration of resources from major online ticketing platforms has stabilized. The reduction of "ticket subsidies" and the rebound of overall ticket prices have led to the breaking of people's consumption habits that rely on subsidies. The new audience groups attracted by "ticket subsidies" have been lost, and their theater movie-watching habits and loyalty formed in the short term need to be adjusted or even reshaped. At the same time, relevant authorities upgraded their ticketing software systems and strictly inspected market order, largely plugging the loopholes in the past system that secretly leaked and concealed box office, and together with the ebb of ticket compensation, eliminated the box office bubble caused by "non-audience" factors in the past movie market. From this perspective, the so-called slowdown in box office growth is not a hindrance to the development of China's films, but a normal adjustment when the terminal of the industrial chain returns to market track.

From a supply-side perspective, the content production capacity of domestic films since the second quarter of this year has generally not met the growing terminal demand of the film market. The homogenization of film genres is becoming more and more serious, and there is a lack of high-quality content supply. It is even more difficult to cope with new uncertainties in the market.

Most mainstream film types are limited to the usual controllable content of domestic films, and they still repeat the production of "light films" such as youth, love, and comedy. Audiences have become aesthetically tired and lack dark horses with small and medium-cost costs. Compared with the same period last year, this year's summer films The box office revenue and word-of-mouth scores are very different. The bad reviews and the decline in word-of-mouth marketing of some films in the first week have directly suppressed the audience's willingness to continue to watch movies, resulting in the depletion of schedule resources. In contrast, the market lacks support for large-scale fantasy and magic films, and masterpieces at the level of "Monster Hunt" have not been reproduced. It can be said that a model for domestic blockbusters to follow the creation rules and creation cycles has not yet been formed. Although a small number of high-concept products reflect the development level of China's film industry at the special effects level, there are obvious shortcomings in terms of comprehensive capabilities and comprehensive effects. For example, many films only see special effects but do not see characterization, narrative logic and humanistic care. They lack creative transformation that matches technology. Audience evaluations are generally low and lack reputation. Overall, most films exposed shortcomings in genre, story and special effects, failing to achieve the expected effect of activating a strong schedule. This also reflects that the current level of China's comprehensive film industry is still unstable and it is difficult to continuously provide high-quality films.

In addition, an important reason for the frequent emergence of domestic film masterpieces in 2015 is the rise of "new forces": the replacement of creative groups has broken the previous situation of single genres and talents, and has become close to the mainstream audience in terms of film types and story presentation, thus creating a summer box office miracle. However, new forces need to be continuously cultivated and supplemented. This year, the proportion of new forces created in the domestic film market is relatively low, which also exposes the shortcomings of China films in talent training and project optimization. The creation of "new power" corresponds to the current trend of becoming younger and younger mainstream audiences in China films. The aesthetic taste of new audiences has become an important factor affecting the creation and development of China films, and has also added many uncertainties to the China film market. This year's domestic film creation has returned to the old conservative creative track to a certain extent. It lacks enterprising spirit. Excessive reliance on IP and fan marketing is not the way to sustainable development, and it is difficult to fully meet the movie-watching needs of young audiences. Overall, domestic films failed to achieve the expected effect of activating the advantageous period. In the face of sudden capital fluctuations on the demand side, they were unable to provide continuous high-quality films to enter the market. The supply-side reform of the development of China's film industry has a long way to go.

It can be seen from the contradiction between the demand side and the supply side that 2016 is not the turning point in the development of China's films. In fact, the foundation and fundamentals of the development of China's films have not undergone reverse changes, and the consumption enthusiasm of mainstream film audiences has not shown a significant ebb or shift. New film forces are still constantly injecting new vitality and impetus into the development of China's film industry. From the perspective of long-term development, the slowdown in growth does not mean that the market is in a downturn. It can be regarded as a normal adjustment of the long-term ultra-high development of China's film industry. In particular, short-term capital and non-professional capital poured into the market and the ebb tide without receiving predetermined returns. The inevitable result, although this has a certain impact on the development speed of Chinese films, it has squeezed out the bubble of Chinese film development to a certain extent. It can be said that Chinese films as a whole have entered a more rational stage of development.

Therefore, in the face of the "turning point" debate, a strategic judgment on the overall development trend of China films will have a decisive impact on the future development of China films. Excessive immersion in the excitement and joy of accelerating development in the past or pessimistic and negative treatment of contradictions and shortcomings will miss the historic opportunity to actively promote structural adjustment of the film industry. We must be clearly aware of the seriousness and complexity of the current overall slowdown in the growth of China films, as well as the hidden deep-seated contradictions and crises. If there is really an "inflection point" in China films, it is a certain inflection point in the development model and growth mode of China films. As a normal effect caused by the long-term rapid development of the film market, it is also a necessary process for structural optimization in the development process of China film industry.

Editor: Nancy