The market value of most Spring Festival film production companies fell. China films shrank by 915 million yuan a day

while the 2017 Spring Festival film set a new box office record and handed over a bright report card, investors are also looking forward to a "good start" for stocks related to the Spring Festival. Disappointingly, stocks fell short of expectations on Friday.

original title: the Spring Festival film box office exceeded 3.3 billion related concept stocks, but failed to "get off to a good start"

Seven-day holiday, the box office performance of the Spring Festival film was quite a surprise. According to the data, as of the sixth year of junior high school, the total box office of the 2017 Spring Festival films (New Year's Eve to the sixth day of junior high school) reached 3.357 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 percent over the same period last year, and the total number of moviegoers was 88.5463 million, an increase of 4.5 percent over the same period last year.

while the 2017 Spring Festival film set a new box office record and handed over a bright report card, investors are also looking forward to a "good start" for stocks related to the Spring Festival. Disappointingly, stocks fell short of expectations on Friday.

< strong > the market value of Chinese films has shrunk by more than 900 million in one day < / strong >

unlike the situation of "tripod" in last year's Spring Festival, this year's Spring Festival has seen "five protections" at the box office. Ranked from high to low at the box office, the five guardians are Stephen Chow and Tsui Hark's "Journey to the West", Jackie Chan's "Kung Fu Yoga" with Tang Jili, Han Han's second film "riding the Wind and waves", Wang Baoqiang's film director's debut film "making Tianzhu", and the domestic animated film "Bear in Fantasy Space". "Journey to the West" and "Kung Fu Yoga" both reached the top at the one-day box office during the Spring Festival.

in these five films, except for "Bear in Fantasy Space" and "braving the Wind and waves", Chinese films have been invested, produced or distributed. So how did Chinese films perform in the A-share market last Friday?

when trading opened on Friday, after opening high and briefly surging higher, the share price of Chinese films fell sharply, falling to 21.17 yuan per share, the lowest point of the day, down 2.67% at one point. Although Chinese film shares have rebounded since then, they still fell more than 2 per cent to 2.25 per cent throughout the day. On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, Chinese movies fell 0.49 yuan per share. According to the total share capital of 1.867 billion shares shown in last year's quarterly report, the market value of Chinese films fell by 915 million yuan in just one trading day, exceeding the total box office revenue of "Kung Fu Yoga" during the Spring Festival.

< strong > at the box office, most of the "five guardians" concept stocks fell < / strong >

in addition to Chinese films, there are also a number of A-share listed companies, such as New Culture, Huayi Brothers and Happy Blue Sea, in the production side of the movie Journey to the West. The above three listed companies have also stepped out of a market similar to that of Chinese films. Also fell sharply after opening high. New Culture fell 4.24% throughout the day, and the market value of A shares lost 425 million yuan. Huayi Brothers fell 1.05% throughout the day, reducing its market value by 306 million yuan. Happy Blue Ocean fell by 1.73%, and its market value fell by 152 million yuan.

in the related concept stocks of the movie Kung Fu Yoga, in addition to Chinese movies and Huayi Brothers, there are also three listed companies: Huatze Film and Television, Wen Tou Holdings and Shanghai Film (also the publisher of "braving the Wind and waves"). Unfortunately, in the first trading day after the Spring Festival, all three companies also failed to get off to a good start, falling by 0.75%, 0.21% and 1.62%, respectively.

it is worth mentioning that the movie "making Tianzhu", which has attracted a lot of attention because of Wang Baoqiang's divorce, has an eye-catching performance in attracting money during the Spring Festival. However, the issuer behind it, Light Media, dropped 6.19% throughout the day after it opened sharply lower, and its market capitalization also fell by 1.936 billion yuan in one day.

among the above concept stocks, only Letv, the issuer of Bear haunting Fantasy Space, became popular online, up 0.33% throughout the day.

in addition, the performance of Wanda Cinema, the leading cinema line, was not satisfactory last Friday, falling by 1.45% throughout the day.

< strong > whether the industry has ushered in the economic inflection point remains to be confirmed < / strong >

on the one hand, it is good news that the Spring Festival box office continues to refresh records, on the other hand, it is that related concept stocks have failed to achieve a "good start", which makes many investors feel entangled. Changjiang Securities recently reported that the event of "Spring Festival exceeding expectations" played a catalytic role in the excess returns of related stocks. If the corresponding sector itself is in the upward trend, some investors will be involved in the event-driven strategy of "Spring Festival box office exceeding expectations" in advance, which shows that there are more obvious excess returns before the festival. If the plate is at the top or in the downward phase, it is futile to double the box office.

China Galaxy Securities recently reported that although the opening day of this year's Spring Festival grossed more than 800 million yuan, exceeding market expectations, the average rating of films released on the first day of the Spring Festival was only 5.74 points. Because the content quality of the film is not the core factor of the box office on the first day of the Spring Festival, and the audience has a high tolerance to the content quality of the film during the Spring Festival over the years, this makes the box office on the first day of the Spring Festival and even the Spring Festival box office will remain high in the short term. However, after the first day, the box office of the follow-up film will be more dependent on the quality of the film content and its word-of-mouth effect. In the long run, the quality of film content will still be the decisive factor affecting the future trend of the film box office. On the first day of the Spring Festival, the film box office is popular but the film rating is low, which may affect the follow-up box office trend after the Spring Festival.

Huatai Securities believes that the reasons for the Spring Festival slightly exceeding expectations mainly include ticket replacement pre-sale, channel sinking and demand-side bottleneck breakthrough. Although the box office slightly exceeded market expectations, it remains to be seen whether the higher-than-expected performance will last for the whole year because of the particularity of the Spring Festival.

Edit: nancy