More than 60% of films have not reached the guaranteed issuance amount, overheated capital, renvoi has low success rate

全文约0字，阅读需要0分钟

According to statistics from reporters from Beijing Business Daily, 11 films were guaranteed at the box office in 2016. There were also film and television production and distribution companies such as Yaolai Film and Television, Microfilm Times, and financial investment companies such as Kuailu Group. Although the growth rate of the domestic film market slowed down in 2016 due to factors such as the reduction in ticket subsidies and the return of rationality to the audience, more than half of the guaranteed release films did not meet expectations, which still cast a shadow on the prospects of guaranteed release in 2017.

of the 11 films released with a guaranteed release, only 4 have met expectations. Although the growth of the domestic film market slowed down in 2016 due to factors such as the reduction of ticket subsidies and the return of audiences to rationality, the failure of more than half of the guaranteed release films to meet expectations still cast a shadow over the prospect of guaranteed release in 2017.

the 2016 Spring Festival film "the Mermaid" grossed more than 3 billion yuan at the box office so that more capital is aimed at guaranteed distribution. According to statistics from the Beijing Business Daily, 11 films made public at the box office in 2016, and the capital to guarantee the bottom of the film is also Yaolai Film and Television, Weiying era and other film production and distribution companies, as well as financial investment companies such as Kuailu Group. But from the box office point of view, not every movie can replicate the success of Mermaid. Of the 11 guaranteed films, only four met expectations. Although the growth of the domestic film market slowed down in 2016 due to factors such as the reduction of ticket subsidies and the return of audiences to rationality, the failure of more than half of the guaranteed release films to meet expectations still cast a shadow over the prospect of guaranteed release in 2017.

more than 60% of films fail to reach the guaranteed amount

since Huayi Brothers guaranteed 300 million yuan for" Journey to the West "in 2013, the guaranteed distribution has really entered the domestic film and television market. The box office success of films such as "Love in Love" and "Forever" has also made more and more films begin to adopt a guaranteed distribution model, and the guaranteed amount and threshold have also begun to rise. According to a survey conducted by this reporter, 11 films have been released at the box office in 2016, and six films have a guaranteed amount of 1 billion yuan. Many films get guaranteed agreements even before they are completed. For example, Beijing Culture guaranteed 800m yuan before the filming of Wolf Warriors 2 directed by Wu Jing, and reached a 300 million yuan guarantee agreement with Hengye Pictures before the shooting of Dream Partners.

from the box office point of view, not every film can achieve the desired results. According to public information, of the 11 guaranteed films, only "Tomb robbing Notes", "Heroes of Hot Pot", "to Youth you are still here" and "Mermaid" reached the guaranteed amount, while the rest of the projects ended in failure, including some films adapted by popular IP and very star effects. For example, Boehner Pictures'1 billion yuan guarantee "the Legend of God" ended up with a box office of only 284 million yuan, while Hengye Pictures guaranteed "Arbor in Summer, Avatar Paradise" with a final box office of only 156 million yuan. The "Dream partner", who signed the guarantee agreement in advance, finally grossed only 80.99 million yuan.

Liu Deliang, founder of Xinyuan think tank, believes that guaranteed distribution is a trading model developed by producers and distributors based on the demand for market competition. Through guaranteed distribution, producers can reduce risks and have sufficient funds to invest in the production process of the next film project; distributors also hope to win excellent film projects and increase their distribution scale. and reap more box office revenue. From the market point of view, the emergence of this transaction model has its rationality and inevitability. When the overall growth rate of the film market slowed down in 2016, the box office revenue reached or did not reach the guaranteed amount is also a normal market result.

the success rate of overheated capital is low

throughout the current film market, too much capital has entered the field of guaranteed issuance. It involves not only film production and distribution companies such as Weiying era and Hengye Pictures, but also investment enterprises such as Kuailu Group. Excessive capital inflows are not optimistic for the film industry, which is in its early stages of development. In the view of Liu Jianfeng, director of the public affairs department of Poly Film Investment Co., Ltd., not only is the domestic film market facing a bubble, but also the expectations of some non-established film enterprises on the film market are also bubble. only relying on the phenomenal success of the Mermaid's guaranteed release, it is considered that there is a commercial opportunity in the field of guaranteed distribution. Most enterprises do not really think calmly about the true level of the current film market. From a series of financial operations such as repeated financing in the film Ip Man 3, we can see the defects and disadvantages of the current development of the domestic film industry.

Liu Jianfeng said that for the capital side, they want to collect more returns through guaranteed distribution; for third-party platforms, they want to occupy more market share. "these are based on the consideration of non-film elements." this makes these platforms and enterprises achieve the desired results through subsidies and other means in the process of guaranteed distribution, rather than strengthening the production and distribution of film content. To some extent, this will make the current film market subservient and blind.

"the drive of capital is so fierce that the structure of domestic film industry at the present stage is also abnormal. On the one hand, driven by capital, enterprises want to make money quickly, expand their scale and improve their performance, while ignoring the creation of content. On the other hand, the influx of capital leads to higher expectations and requirements for film quality production, distribution and so on. In this case, the production and distribution companies are easy to expand, so as to reduce the control of risk, the grasp of quality, and even weaken the respect for the audience. " Liu Deliang said, "at present, the degree of capitalization of the domestic film market has exceeded the degree of industrialization, but in fact, the relatively backward content creation, industrialization system and production management level of the domestic film market. Can not support so much money into the film and television industry."

being good at resource reorganization is the key

in the eyes of the relevant responsible persons of the Weiying era, people have always regarded the guarantee issue as a capital game and thought it was a gamble, but in fact it was not. Bottom guarantee is the optimal allocation of resources in the issuing link, is a very normal market behavior, but also a better way to integrate projects through funds. To some extent, this is similar to the presale system in the overseas film market. "the guarantee of some content is very appropriate, because the guarantee will reorganize the project." Sometimes the various stakeholders of the film will disagree in some aspects, which will affect the performance of the film at the box office. If all the content parties want to finish from beginning to end, but your approach may be wrong, reorganization is very necessary.

at present, the cooperation of bottom guarantee is relatively complex. There are many other cooperative rights and interests in addition to the guarantee deposit. It is not that people in the industry will lose money if they do not reach the guarantee amount. People in the industry do not know enough about the issuance of guarantee. You can't feel that the guarantee failed just because you haven't reached the bottom line. Take the Railway Flying Tiger as an example, the 300 million yuan guarantee fee in the Weiying era included a publicity fee of more than 50 million yuan, while Weiying's Entertainment Yue invested 12.5 million yuan, accounting for 5 percent of the investment. In addition to box office sharing, this investment will also bring returns on Internet copyright, overseas, tax rebate, derivative licensing, game licensing and so on. And Weiying also has investment income, "Railway Flying Tiger" delayed release for a month, with the current box office trend will achieve a break-even. "

in addition, in the view of practitioners, based on the current development background of the film industry, the practical operation of finance is still feasible. "but the establishment of a complete industrialization system is a necessary condition for financialization. There is no strict industrial system, production management, eager to do financial products, there will be greater risks and market chaos. " Liu Deliang stressed this.

Edit: yvonne