Industry insiders: The film market will enter a medium-speed development channel in the next few years

With the end of the long holiday, the "Spring Festival" of the film market has also come to an end. The total box office of 3.35 billion yuan in 7 days is only slightly higher than the same period last year. The industry expects that the film market will "open higher" in the new year, but it will be difficult to "go higher".

Original title: The total box office of the Spring Festival period is 3.35 billion yuan. Some insiders believe that the film market will not open higher this year

. With the end of the long holiday, the "Spring Festival period" of the film market has also come to an end. The total box office of 3.35 billion yuan in 7 days is only slightly higher. In the same period last year, the industry expects that the film market in the new year will "open higher", but it will be difficult to "go higher".

Although the newly released 2016 annual reports of many film and television companies have achieved good results, analysts believe that the film and television performance of most film and television companies has declined, and their profits come from investment in other fields. They also believe that the film industry has each dug "wall" for its own selfish interests, resulting in less and less profits for producers, violating the principle of "content is king", and making the vicious cycle of the industry increasingly serious. This is the main reason why the film industry is in crisis.

According to data from the Een database, from January 27 to February 2, the total box office of movies nationwide was slightly higher than about 3.35 billion yuan (excluding handling fees).

Looking back at the data for 2016 and 2015, it is also from the 30th to the 67th day of the Lunar New Year. The total box office from February 7 to February 13, 2016 was about 3.09 billion yuan, and the box office from February 19 to February 24, 2015 was about 1.797 billion yuan.

Although the box office of the "Spring Festival" in 2017 still relied on "Journey to the West" to support the overall situation, and the 2016 "Mermaid" also took on the big box office responsibility of the Spring Festival.

"Journey to the West to the Demon" lacks stamina.

Compared with the highest box office in the seven days, it can be seen that the box office in the first day of 2017 was about 804 million yuan."Journey to the Demon" accounted for 44% of the box office, reaching about 354 million yuan. In 2016, the box office of the first day was about 647 million yuan, and the box office ratio of "Mermaid" was about 42%, or about 272 million yuan. However, both blockbusters with Stephen Chow's brand name, the average daily box office of "Mermaid" in 2016 was more than 200 million yuan. However,"Journey to the West to the Demon" was short of stamina after four days of rushing. The main box office was changed to "Kung Fu Yoga", with an average daily box office of only about 150 million yuan.

"It is difficult to make 2 billion yuan in" Journey to the West to Conquering Demons "." He Wei, a person in the film industry, analyzed that the overall situation of the film market during this year's Spring Festival is not as good as last year. Only the box office on New Year's Day was higher than the first day of last year. The box office on other days dropped sharply. Not to mention that part of the box office was included in e-commerce platform ticket purchase fees, and compared with the Spring Festival in 2016, the number of screens nationwide was about 10000 yuan more.

Some industry insiders revealed that in addition to adding handling fees to the box office to improve box office data, large-scale ticket subsidies also "add to the box office data, pointing out that ticket subsidies are mainly concentrated on the first day of the first day, and questioned the existence of some false box office on the day: " I just observed that many theaters were full during the 'abnormal hours', which may be fake games."

Chen Shaofeng, a professor at the Institute of Culture at Peking University, believes that a large total box office can be obtained even if the film's reputation is not as good as expected, which means that watching movies has become the main consumption method during holidays. The market has cultivated a certain group of people's movie-watching habits, which is conducive to stabilizing the market. It helps, but it also reflects that with such a large market capacity, only "barely enough" films match it, resulting in a bottleneck in the film market and lack of growth.

However, according to the recently released 2016 annual report of the film and television company, most of the results are good. For example, Tangde Film and Television released a performance forecast, with an expected profit of 155 to 185 million yuan in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 37.96% to 64.66%. The 2016 results forecast announced by Huace Film and Television stated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies during this period was 475 million yuan to 571 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0% to 20%.

He Wei believes that the situation of film companies and the film market may not necessarily show the same trend: "If a film company can produce one or two blockbusters a year, it will have a chance to make profits. However, the entire film market is not good, and the losses are other film companies and movie theaters. Of the more than 200 movies made every year, at least one to two hundred are 'cannon fodder.'"

In the next few years, the film market will

enter a medium-speed development channel

. In Chen Shaofeng's view, the polarization of the market will become more and more obvious: "Large film companies are relatively stable and have stable income, while most small film companies have problems. The biggest difficulty is The cost of movies is getting higher and higher, making it difficult to make high-quality films, and performance will have relatively large fluctuations." On the other hand, big film companies don't put all their eggs on the film business. Take Huayi Brothers as an example. The company's annual report forecast currently states that its expected performance is basically flat. According to He Wei's analysis, Huayi Brothers 'performance is not mainly driven by box office, but investment in other fields, such as film copyright. "Companies that rely solely on movie theaters to make money had a poor market last year." He learned that the revenue of many cinemas basically did not increase in 2016. The average profit of some old cinemas dropped by 15% to 20%, and they could only make money by opening new cinemas.

"The hardware facilities in the entire market continue to increase. In 2016, the number of screens nationwide increased by nearly 10000, which does not match the growth rate of movie box office." Chen Shaofeng believes that in the next few years, China's film market will enter a medium or medium to low speed development channel.

Chen Shaofeng believes that in addition to layman intervention, the skyrocketing value of stars, and capital intervention leading to market normalization, many companies have also made many "small tricks" for the box office, which has damaged the operating capabilities of the producers. He explained that "violating the principle that content is king in the film market is the biggest reason for the film market crisis."

On the other hand, the well-known ticket replacement has also been "poached" by some theaters.

Chen Shaofeng explained: "According to data, the average price of movies in 2016 was 36 yuan. However, during the actual promotion process, some organizations paid out of their own pockets to make ticket supplements. The price of tens of thousands or even 100,000 tickets in the early stage of the film screening is only 9.9 yuan or 15 yuan, but these tickets may not be delivered to consumers. Instead, they are bought by theaters and sold at their own windows for 36 yuan, that is, the income from ticket supplements is transferred to theaters." He believes that the actions of many parties for self-interest have brought harm to the market.

This year's outlook is

expected

to boost market confidence.

He Wei believes that the film market will open higher and go lower in 2016. Judging from the Spring Festival in 2017, this year's market will open lower and will be difficult to go higher. The overall box office is expected to be the same as last year, or because the number of screens continues to grow slightly higher than last year: "It is estimated that there will be no surprises in the market this year."

Faced with the current market situation, industry insiders are not very optimistic about this year's market.

He Wei believes that China filmmakers have lived a good life for more than a decade and do not know how to work hard after the industry's development slows down: "There seems to be no new opportunities at present." In his view, the overall market is currently in a period of adjustment, and it is not clear whether it can be transformed. The reason is that when the market was in a downturn in 2016, there were no new models in theaters, no scientific planning in theaters, no innovation in genre films, and no new life. Director power has emerged, sales of film derivatives have not improved, and there have been no breakthroughs in production: "We can only hope that this year's summer season will see a large growth compared with the same period last year, boosting market confidence."

Editor: yvette