Guaranteed distribution has become a passport to the film industry. Investment is irrational or death in battle

In the list of people who want a piece of the pie, in addition to traditional film giants, the names of new film companies are listed. Without the first-mover advantage of a movie tycoon, for the upstart film industry who wants to get a piece of the pie, they can only choose the guaranteed release ticket if they want to enter the battlefield.

Original title: The upstart who joined the film and television industry by erecting the banner of "guaranteed distribution" may only have the opportunity to die in battle

on Saturday, July 18 last year, the box office of China films reached 425 million yuan in a single day, setting a historical record at the time. On that day,"Monster Hunt" won 185 million yuan,"Pancake Man" won 153 million yuan, and "Return of the Great Sage" won 62 million yuan. The troika pushed the summer season to the hottest spot in history.

However, on the same Saturday this year, the domestic box office totaled only 189 million yuan, slightly higher than the single-day box office of "Monster Hunt".

At the beginning of this year, the film market set a target of 60 billion yuan for 2016. The surge in the first quarter did give people hope. However, after March, the box office suddenly turned cold. The box office even fell year-on-year in April and May. As of June 30, the mainland box office closed at 24.7 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of only 20% compared with the box office of 20.4 billion yuan in the same period last year. To achieve the target of 60 billion yuan, the mainland box office growth rate in the second half of this year needs to reach 50%.

As the first popular schedule in the second half of the year, you can imagine the pressure on the summer season. As a result, the summer season has become the main battlefield for various film companies to fight.

In the list of people who want a piece of the pie, in addition to traditional film giants, the names of new film companies are listed. Without the first-mover advantage of a movie tycoon, for the upstart film industry who wants to get a piece of the pie, they can only choose the guaranteed release ticket if they want to enter the battlefield.

Guaranteed distribution has become a passport for the film industry

. Guaranteed distribution is not a new product. As early as 2002, Yu Dong won the distribution rights of "Legend of Tianmai" by means of guaranteed distribution. In 2013, Huayi Brothers released "Journey to the West: Demon Conquering" at a guaranteed price of 300 million yuan, which was a great success. However, Stephen Chow and Huayi fell out in court due to box office dividends, and the two sides broke up on bad terms.

However, until 2015, guaranteed issuance was still only a scattered and isolated case. Later, Wanda guaranteed the guarantee of "One Step Away", but the box office was far from expected. Wang Sicong also started tearing up "One Step Away" on Weibo.

From the producer's perspective, the film's payment back cycle is long and unstable, so that you can feel at ease when you get the cash before it is released; for the guarantee company, there is also an opportunity to increase the share ratio. However, this requires that the film itself must be relatively reassuring and that the box office can generate expectations.

After all, the film industry requires a lot of manpower and material resources for support, and the investment in every film is a huge number. However, capital brings not only money, but also a more "financial circle" way of operating the industry.

In last year's "Lost in Hong Kong", Xu Zheng traded with a beautiful left-handed and right-handed approach, which not only earned box office earnings in advance, but also pushed up his share price. Stephen Chow, who once suffered losses due to guaranteed guarantees, also made a comeback through "Mermaid". Several companies jointly guaranteed a guaranteed guarantee of 2 billion yuan. Although there is no specific figure for Xingye's own dividends, it is very satisfactory.

In these several bottom-guarantee operations, there are drivers who understand the capital market behind the scenes. Guaranteeing is no longer just a game between the producer and the publisher. If this new gameplay gets out of control, it will lead to the tragic end of Ip Man 3.

After all, Stephen Chow only has one. Even a director like Jiang Wen who has proven his commercial and artistic abilities will encounter cold faces from the market. For this reason, the company is often cautious when making guaranteed releases.

Moreover, the Matthew effect in the film industry is extremely significant. In 2015, the top ten films in the box office rankings received more than one-third of the box office of that year. Therefore, betting on "hot movies" has become the only choice for film companies. When judging hot movies, no one can guarantee that they will win. There are stars, or the foundation of previous films, or similar films have achieved success, these have become the basic criteria.

The risks of doing so are self-evident, but hot money continues to enter the film industry, and new companies are eager to enter. Sometimes, even if they know they may lose money, the company still has to bite the bullet, because if they don't keep up this time, it is very likely that the next opportunity comes, they will only become a spectator.

For this reason, during the summer guarantee battle, Huayi, Wanda, and Light, who have control of production resources, almost stayed put or were forced to fight. Most of those participating in the guarantee competition were upstarts in the industry. For example, the Microfilm Era with the Internet background, Alibaba Pictures and China Alliance, Alibaba Pictures 'shadow company, and Hengye and Yaolai, who are unwilling to be on the second-line list.

They all hope to get higher-quality film projects, avoid being squeezed by film companies and distributors, use capital and the Internet to open the way, and quickly establish their own industry influence.

As

Gao Hongsen, president of Jidian Film and Television, said in an interview with the media: "For good projects or large projects, most film companies will propose guaranteed releases."

The so-called good projects and big projects are generally generally recognized in the current market as having stars, famous directors, big IP, good dates and even a little gimmick. During the summer holiday, movies such as "Summer With Arbor Elegance in Paradise","Escape from the Jedi", and "To Youth 2" have been guaranteed, and the guarantees lurking behind them have also revealed their mystery.

Hengye Film and Television is a Fujian company. The films previously released were mainly horror films. However, after the success of "Jingcheng 81", Hengye began to dabble in other types of films. But whether "Otaku Detective Gui Xiang" or "Disappeared Lover", the box office results were not considered successful. Guaranteed "Dream Partner" has an estimated loss of approximately 70 million yuan. However, Hengye, which has completed Series A financing, still entered the summer period, guaranteeing a guaranteed guarantee of 400 million yuan for "Summer With Qiao Mu and Elegant Hope for Paradise".

The micro-film era for the poster of the movie "Summer has Arbor, Elegance Hope in Paradise"

has entered a period of rapid expansion this year. It has introduced many shareholders and received an investment of 4.5 billion yuan. The micro-film era has made increasingly strides in film distribution. A lithography staff member made no secret of saying that guaranteed issuance is one of the important strategies at present.

Nowadays, Microfilm has new movie projects almost every month. At the beginning of the summer break, Microfilm has set a guaranteed guarantee of 400 million yuan for "To Youth 2". Judging from the current box office, this guaranteed guarantee is close to success.

Tangde Films is the producer of "Escape from the Jedi". Last year, Donde proposed a strategy to strive to have three films in the script stage, three in preparation, three in filming, three in post-production, and three in release every year, which undoubtedly increases the company's financial pressure. In order to pay back in time, Donde sold the box office revenue rights of "Escape from the Jedi".

The buyers include Lianrui Pictures, Hehe Pictures, and Beijing China United Alliance Culture Company. Hehe Pictures is a fund investment company. Its most famous action is to dominate the 2 billion yuan guarantee for "Mermaid", while Lianrui Pictures is the executive publisher of "Mermaid". China United League is a subsidiary of Alibaba Pictures. In this way, financial companies and Internet giants joined forces into the battlefield.

Among these upstarts, Internet companies such as Microfilm have quietly emerged. In addition to their abundant capital strength, large Internet companies also have channel advantages. Online ticket sales in China have exceeded the proportion of offline ticket sales. E-commerce companies can directly influence the movie layout choices of theater managers through pre-sales and ticket replenishment.

Moreover, Internet platforms can more accurately predict the box office situation of a movie through big data and behavioral analysis, thereby determining their own bottom-saving strategy.

However, it is still difficult to heat up this summer season with the rush of guaranteed guarantees. There will be more than 80 films released this summer, but the general view is that the probability of three "hits" in a row like last year is slim. Not only that, the market has also frequently weakened. Since July, total domestic box office revenue has been 2.77 billion yuan, down 16% from 3.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. The fast-running film market has ushered in its first summer decline in five years.

The summer fighting is so fierce that most people who enter this battlefield will only fight hard. However, if you do not participate in the guaranteed issuance, you may not even be qualified to die in battle.

Success in gold mining or die in battle?

Because of guaranteed issuance, box office pressure has increased. It is precisely because of box office pressure that ticket replacement and box office buying, which have gradually disappeared since "Ip Man 3", are now on the rise again.

"To Youth 2" has a large number of tickets of 9.9, and the ticket price of "Fast Hand Shooter" at the IMAX venue in Beijing Wanda CBD is only 29.9. According to previous media surveys, a large number of "ghost venues" have appeared in some movies, and the ticketing system shows that the number of games is clearly close to full, but in fact there is almost no one.

In the long run, guaranteed issuance may cause greater harm.

As mentioned before, most of the people participating in guaranteed distribution are newly rich in the industry. They often have capital backgrounds and regard films as product targets for investment. However, such companies are much more profit-seeking than ordinary film companies. If their investment suffers large-scale losses, their capital is likely to quickly withdraw from the film market. The film industry's production capabilities and production talents are originally insufficient. Once the popularity drops, the industry's turning point may appear ahead of schedule.

Guaranteed distribution was originally an expedient means to ensure box office revenue rights after the film is completed, but now it has become a financial product or even a gamble. In a rapidly developing industry, there will be many irrational investment behaviors. These investments may promote the prosperity of the industry. However, when the waves recede, only a blank space will be left on the beach.

The movie upstart is full of ambition to dig into the future market of hundreds of billions, and intends to gain a pass to the movie gold mine with "guaranteed distribution". Perhaps what they get is just a chance to die in battle.

Editor: Nancy