Theater stocks are expected to usher in a new "summer season" market, or the annual box office may increase by 10% to 20%

This year's "summer season" competition for movies has become heated. According to statistics, nearly 100 movies were released in July and August, with an average of 8 new movies per weekend. On July 15, 10 new movies will be released at the same time! According to industry insiders, summer box office generally accounts for about 1/3 of the annual box office, playing an important role.

vacation has just begun, and competition for the "summer stalls" of movies has become heated. According to statistics, nearly 100 movies were released in July and August, with an average of 8 new movies per weekend. On July 15, 10 new movies will be released at the same time! Industry analysts said that the market will soon enter the "Domestic Film Protection Month". It is expected that the domestic film market share will reach about 55% for the whole year, while large-scale film and television leading stocks will usher in a new wave of market in the two months of the "summer season". Investors can consider theater stocks.

This year's "summer season" competition for movies has become heated. According to statistics, nearly 100 movies were released in July and August, with an average of 8 new movies per weekend. On July 15, 10 new movies will be released at the same time! According to industry insiders, summer box office generally accounts for about 1/3 of the annual box office, playing an important role.

The box office for the whole year is expected to increase by 10

to 20%. Although ticket compensation has been significantly reduced, the box office in China still reached 24.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 22%. According to data provided by Chen Shaofeng, a professor at the Institute of Culture at Peking University, in the first quarter of this year, the box office of China movies increased by more than 50%, while it declined in the second quarter: "Due to the decrease in distribution and ticket compensation, the overall box office size has been directly affected. However, with the arrival of summer vacation, the market has entered a new stage again."

He told reporters that the "summer season" is an important period for China's film industry, especially now that cinemas are gradually expanding to third-and fourth-tier cities, and the number of movie viewers is mainly students: "During the summer vacation, there is no need to be affected by working and school hours. The attendance of many cinemas during the day will also increase significantly, and the overall scale will increase significantly." Xie Shiming, assistant general manager of Jinyi Zhujiang Theater Line, said that summer box office generally accounts for about 1/3 of the annual box office.

Senior filmmaker San Yu said that as of May 21 this year, the mainland box office has reached 20 billion yuan, 37 days ahead of last year's rate of reaching 20 billion yuan: "The box office target for this year will mainly depend on the summer box office situation."

He analyzed that in the past five years, the proportion of summer box office in the national box office has been concentrated in the range of 25% to 33%, so this year's summer box office performance will directly determine whether the overall box office for the whole year can exceed expectations: "In 2015, the summer box office increased by 37% year-on-year to 12.431 billion yuan. During this period, films such as" Monster Hunt "," Return of the Great Sage ", and" Pancake Man "directly ignited the capital market's enthusiasm for investment in the industry."

Sanyu believes that the summer release lists that have been released are full of blockbusters, including "Warcraft","The Grand Tradition", and "Tomb Robber Notes", which may hit 2 billion yuan in the box office, while the rest such as "Smiling with a Smile","Big Fish·Begonia", etc. can also provide various types of supplements. Chen Shaofeng predicts that the box office of movies in China this year is expected to increase by 10% to 20% compared with last year. As China's movie chains continue to expand, the country is estimated to have 38000 screens by the end of this year.

Will the box office in July be about 10% lower than the same period last year?

Theater people believe that the box office in July may be about 10% lower than the same period last year. Xie Shiming told reporters that the market had entered the preparatory state for summer holidays in June: "The movies released in June were mainly imported films. The latest data shows that the national box office in June was 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase." However, he estimates that the overall box office in July is likely to lose to the same period last year. The reason is that blockbusters such as "Monster Hunt","Return of the Great Sage", and "Pancake Man" were released in July last year, bringing the box office in July last year to 5.5 billion yuan: "There are no such blockbusters released this year, so it is estimated that the box office in July will drop year-on-year, and the total box office may be around 4.5 billion yuan. August may be basically flat or slightly increased."

He analyzed that the national box office has dropped year-on-year in April and May, which is related to the quality of the film and the weakening of e-commerce ticket subsidies: "If it is not for terminal development, the box office will definitely develop. In particular, e-commerce has gradually matured and gained popularity, and will no longer invest so much in ticket replacement." He told reporters that at the beginning of the year, the industry predicted that the annual box office could reach 60 billion yuan, but now the target has been adjusted to 55 billion yuan: "Generally speaking, the box office in the first half of the year accounts for between 45% and 50% of the annual box office. According to this ratio, the total box office for the whole year is expected to be around 54 billion yuan."

He believes that it is normal for the market to become larger and the growth rate to slow down, which proves that the market is mature: "Generally, the average growth rate in the first half of the year was about 30%, and last year it reached 40%, compared with 22% in the first half of this year. But the market has grown so big, which is a good growth rate."

Capital market: Should the performance of small and medium-sized film and television stocks double, buy leading stocks or small and medium-sized film and television stocks?

In the recovery trend of the A-share market, the film and television culture sector benefited from the popularity of summer film and television dramas and performed strongly. Among them, Ciwen Media's shares hit a daily limit on Tuesday due to the official opening of the summer season in the film and television industry this week and the release of the IP drama "Lao Nine Gates", which attracted high attention from netizens, yesterday.

Thanks to the continued improvement of the film and television industry, the performance of small and medium-sized film and television cultural listed companies generally improved to a higher level in 2016, and a large number of people had doubled their expected performance in the semi-annual report. For example, Ciwen Media's net profit in the first quarter surged by 308% year-on-year. It is expected that the semi-annual net profit will be 80 million yuan to 100 million yuan (less than 50 million yuan in the same period last year), and the year-on-year growth is expected to double. Another example is Perfect Global, which reported a 245% increase in net profit in the first quarter, and its semi-annual report forecast also increased significantly; Xingmei United's net profit in the first quarter also increased by 157% year-on-year.

However, Chen Long, an analyst at Chenghong Research University Culture Studio, believes that it is difficult for a "black horse" to appear during the summer period, and there is a high probability that it will obtain qualified box office results. If you want to choose stocks based on the movies released, you will face a choice problem, so the best choice is to buy theater stocks: "Large-scale leading film and television stocks will usher in a new wave of market prices in the two months of the summer period."

Expert opinion: The development of the film industry will no longer rely on box office

."Summer vacation" is the "Domestic Film Protection Month". Chen Shaofeng said frankly that due to the lack of competitiveness of domestic films and the lack of blockbusters suitable for young people, they are not very competitive during the summer vacation.

Sanyu said that throughout this summer, there are various types of films such as fantasy, action, love, animation, and comedy. In addition to domestic films and imported films, many Chinese and foreign co-productions will also be released: "During this period, imported blockbusters will be rejected by domestic films. Protection month will be followed by an increase in the number of Chinese and foreign co-productions. This phenomenon will become a trend and also open up investors 'favor and care for co-productions." Chen Shaofeng analyzed data and said that the ratio of foreign and domestic box office was close in the first half of the year. It is estimated that due to the "Protection Month", the market share of domestic films will reach about 55% throughout the year.

The main direction is still the industrial chain

. However, he believes that the main direction of film development in the future will be the industrial chain rather than the box office: "More film companies may participate in other movie-related businesses, such as online movies, online video, VR and other entertainment directions, and may also extend the industrial chain by creating IP. It is expected that more ticketing networks will join the investment, production and distribution of films this year." Therefore, he concluded that the future film industry will be characterized by "scattered investment and fierce competition."

In addition, due to the reduction in ticket subsidies, some movie theaters with small sales will be affected, which is expected to polarization this year's market. "Some film companies will accelerate their development through comprehensive business, mergers and acquisitions, extension of industrial chains, ip value, capital operation and other means, while many film and television companies may suffer losses." Chen Shaofeng said that China's film industry is still accelerating industrial integration.

The development of the film industry will be more diversified

. Sanyu believes that the development of the film industry will be more diversified. First of all, people will choose more home theater to watch movies, and rental services for mainstream media and Blu-ray discs will be greatly increased. Companies that provide Internet on-demand streaming media playback, quota DVD, and Blu-ray disc online rental services will be more favored, and playback service providers that provide third-party platforms online will have greater development. A higher-quality platform can maximize the use of these technologies in the film industry. Multi-window operation and multi-platform technologies will be used more. This means that no matter when and wherever, as long as you successfully pay a third party, you can obtain permanent broadcasting qualifications.

San Yu pointed out that the world's leading U.S. movie box office has been booming, growing rapidly from US$8.8 billion in 2009 to US$25 billion in 2013 and eventually accounting for 70% of the total box office. The high growth momentum shown in overseas markets makes it necessary for mainland producers to allow films to overcome cultural and language differences in different regions and find key points that resonate with people's emotions.

"In addition, virtual reality movies will likely become reality, and virtual reality equipment company Oculus has begun to focus more on the film field. Virtual reality technology can build a bridge between games and movies. Movies are more attractive in terms of stories, and we will see a very interesting connection between the two." Sanyu finally said.

Editor: Nancy